Donald Trump's fifth Hormuz ultimatum expires at 8pm ET (0000 UTC Wednesday). It follows the 6 April power-grid deadline and the second replacement that itself ran out, and reformulates the same threat for the fifth time in six weeks.
Each previous expiry produced an extension. The rhetoric escalated each cycle while the operational ceiling stayed flat: no civilian-infrastructure threshold ever crossed, no new target category announced, no military fact on the ground that the prior subsequents had not already established. The most probable outcome tonight, on the pattern, is a sixth extension framed around whatever the Islamabad track allows.
Tehran is now planning around the assumption that the deadline itself is the instrument, not a precursor to action. The risk is not that one of these expiries is theatre, it is that the day Trump genuinely intends to follow through, no actor in the system will read the signal differently from the four that preceded it.
