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Pandemics and Biosecurity
21JUL

Madagascar logs half July's mpox cases

3 min read
09:12UTC

WHO says Madagascar reported 703 of the world's 1,370 confirmed mpox cases in July, all clade Ib, as a permanent vaccine stockpile opened on 27 August.

ScienceDeveloping
Key takeaway

Madagascar carries half the world's confirmed mpox with thin testing and short vaccine supply.

Madagascar reported 703 of the world's 1,370 confirmed cases of mpox, a viral disease related to smallpox that causes painful skin lesions, in July, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) situation report 69⁠1. By 16 August the island had 3,436 confirmed cases, with 22 deaths, in 75 of its 115 districts, all of them clade Ib. That lineage of the more severe clade I virus was first identified in eastern DR Congo in 2023.

Two in three tests came back positive in the latest week, which means laboratories are seeing the obvious cases and missing many of the rest; WHO reads it as "insufficiently sensitive surveillance". Cases run across all ages and both sexes, a general-population pattern unlike the sexual-network spread behind Europe's local clade I transmission reported in June; there the clade I count stopped rising the same month. WHO cites vaccine stockouts and broken cold chains, the refrigerated supply lines vaccines need, and 111,508 people have had at least one dose.

On 27 August the International Coordinating Group on Vaccine Provision (ICG), the body that rations emergency vaccine stocks, launched a permanent mpox vaccine stockpile. The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) procures the doses and Gavi (the alliance that funds vaccines for poorer countries) pays for them. Countries could request doses from September, replacing the ad hoc allocation system built in 2024. WHO also extended its standing mpox recommendations under the International Health Regulations (the binding treaty on outbreak reporting) to August 2027.

Chile and Hungary reported their first clade Ib cases.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

mpox, a virus related to smallpox, causes painful skin sores and fever. A more severe form, called clade Ib, emerged in DR Congo in 2023 and has since spread elsewhere. Madagascar, the large island off Africa's east coast, now has the world's biggest outbreak. Since December 2025 it has spread among people of all ages, through household contact as well as sex. WHO says the island is running short of vaccine and struggling to keep doses cold. A new permanent vaccine store, paid for by the vaccine alliance Gavi, should let poorer countries request doses quickly instead of waiting for one-off deals.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Madagascar had no recent mpox history, so its people had no immunity and its clinicians little experience recognising the disease. clade Ib, the lineage first identified in eastern DR Congo in 2023, spreads through household and close contact as well as sex.

The island depends on imported vaccine and has fragile cold-chain links outside its cities. WHO cites stockouts and cold-chain disruption as direct reasons the outbreak is not under control.

Regionally, Africa's July total rose 17% while every other WHO region fell, and Madagascar supplied 785 of Africa's 1,153 cases between 6 July and 16 August.

What could happen next?
  • Opportunity

    Madagascar can now request doses from the standing stockpile rather than wait for an allocation round.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Risk

    Exported clade Ib cases from Madagascar could appear in Indian Ocean neighbours and in France, which has direct air links.

    Short term · Suggested
  • Meaning

    WHO plans to move mpox reporting into its Weekly Epidemiological Record, ending the dedicated situation reports.

    Medium term · Assessed
First Reported In

Update #14 · River boat carries Ebola 1,000 km downriver

World Health Organization· 3 Oct 2026
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Causes and effects
This Event
Madagascar logs half July's mpox cases
Madagascar's clade Ib epidemic spreads through the general population while testing misses many cases and vaccine runs short.
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Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.