28APR

Houthis threaten second chokepoint

1 min read

09:13UTC

Three days of sustained attacks on Israel establish that Ansar Allah can maintain tempo. The question is whether they close the strait.

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ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

The Houthi front is calibrated escalation, not symbolic gestures.

Ansar Allah struck Israel for a third consecutive day on 30 March . All projectiles were intercepted. Deputy Information Minister Mohammed Mansour described Bab al-Mandeb closure as "among our options" in a staged escalation, contingent on Israeli or US ground movement. ¹

No formal blockade has been imposed. All vessels, including US- and Israeli-linked ships, continue to transit. But three days of attacks confirm sustainable operational tempo. Combined with near-total Hormuz closure, a formal Bab al-Mandeb blockade would place simultaneous pressure on the world's two most critical oil transit routes for the first time since the 1973 oil crisis. MARAD and UKMTO have already confirmed deliberate GNSS denial spanning both chokepoints .

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Houthis control much of northern Yemen and have been attacking ships in the Red Sea since 2024. They are also allied with Iran. For three days running, they have fired missiles and drones toward Israel; all were intercepted. Bab al-Mandeb is a narrow strait between Yemen and Djibouti. About 10% of all world trade and a large share of oil from the Gulf to Europe passes through it. If the Houthis block it, combined with Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, two of the world's main oil routes would be shut simultaneously. That last happened in 1973 during the Arab oil embargo. It triggered a global recession. The Houthis have not closed Bab al-Mandeb yet, but their deputy minister said it is an option.

Sources:Al Jazeera

Mentions:UKMTO →Strait of Hormuz →Ansar Allah →Mohammed Mansour →Bab al-Mandeb →

First Reported In

Update #53 · Trump drops Hormuz goal; toll becomes law

Al Jazeera· 31 Mar 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Houthis strike Israel for third day

A third consecutive Houthi attack on Israel builds on the first two barrages of 28-30 March, establishing sustainable operational tempo.

Occurred 30 Mar 2026

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GPS blacked out across Gulf chokepoints

GNSS denial across both chokepoints supports the coordinated Houthi-Iran electronic warfare enabling the sustained missile campaign against Israel.

Occurred 29 Mar 2026

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This Event

Houthis threaten second chokepoint

A formal Bab al-Mandeb blockade combined with Hormuz closure would simultaneously shut the world's two most critical oil transit routes for the first time since 1973.

Different Perspectives

International human rights monitors (NetBlocks, IHR, Hengaw)

NetBlocks recorded 1,704 cumulative hours of near-total internet blackout for roughly 90 million Iranians on Day 74, while IHR documented ongoing executions under emergency provisions. These organisations are the only active monitoring windows into a civilian population cut off from the global internet for 71 consecutive days.

UK / France coalition

The Royal Navy confirmed HMS Dragon's Hormuz deployment on its own website on 11 May, converting a press-reported presence into declared force posture; UK and French defence ministers hosted a coalition meeting the same day. Britain and France are now the only named contributors to a Hormuz escort mission all five allies Trump originally asked had declined.

Saudi Aramco / Gulf producers

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned on 11 May that a Hormuz closure could remove 100 million barrels of weekly supply from global markets (roughly 15 million barrels per day for a week), a figure that dwarfs any OPEC+ swing capacity. The warning functions as both a price-floor signal and a public pressure on Washington to protect transit.

Beijing / Chinese Government

China has not publicly acknowledged the four Hong Kong-registered entities designated on 11 May or extended MOFCOM's Blocking Rules cover to HK-domiciled firms. Xi Jinping hosts Trump on 14–15 May having already de-risked state-bank balance sheets via NFRA's quiet loan halt, entering the summit partially compliant before any negotiation.

Tehran / Iranian Government

Foreign Minister Araghchi described Iran's 10-point counter-proposal as 'reasonable and responsible' via spokesman Baqaei on 11 May, and widened the mediator pool by meeting Turkish, Egyptian, and Dutch counterparts in a single day. Tehran is buying procedural runway while Trump's verbal rejection went unmatched by any written US counter.

Trump White House

Trump called the ceasefire 'on massive life support' and dismissed Iran's 10-point counter-proposal as 'a piece of garbage' on 11 May, while departing for Beijing two days later with no signed Iran instrument to show Congress. The verbal maximum and the paper void coexist: the administration is running a legal pressure campaign through Treasury while the president free-lances the rhetoric.