Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group characterised six weeks of war in a single sentence: "In the attempt to prevent Iran from developing a weapon of mass destruction, the US handed Iran a weapon of mass disruption" 1. Vaez is one of the few named analysts to have called both the initial Hormuz closure and the toll system's permanence in advance, which gives the framing weight beyond the soundbite. The structural inversion he is describing is concrete: the leverage Washington went to war to remove has instead been codified into Iranian domestic law and projected outwards through a working customs system. The weapon Vaez names is the one Tehran is now asking the US to legally ratify .
7APR
Vaez: a weapon of mass disruption
1 min read
10:19UTC
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group summarised six weeks of war in a single sentence: in trying to deny Iran a weapon of mass destruction, the US handed it a weapon of mass disruption.
ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway
The leverage the US went to war to remove has been codified into Iranian law and projected outwards.
Deep Analysis
In plain English
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group , one of the few analysts who correctly called the Hormuz closure and the toll system's permanence , summarised the war in a single sentence: the US went to war to stop Iran building a weapon of mass destruction, and in doing so handed Iran a weapon of mass disruption. The weapon he means is the Hormuz toll system: a working customs authority over the world's most important oil chokepoint, codified into Iranian domestic law, already collecting revenue from French and Japanese ships. The leverage the US meant to remove has instead been legally embedded. That is what Iran is now asking Washington to ratify.
What could happen next?
- Meaning
Vaez's framing captures the structural inversion that has occurred: the war's stated objective , removing Iran's leverage , has instead produced the codification of a new and durable form of leverage that will outlast any ceasefire arrangement not explicitly structured to dismantle it.
First Reported In
Update #61 · Carriers retreat; Iran codifies Hormuz
Forces News· 7 Apr 2026
Read original →Different Perspectives
South Korean financial markets
South Korea, which imports virtually all its crude oil, is absorbing the war's economic transmission most acutely among non-belligerents. The second KOSPI circuit breaker in four sessions — with Samsung down over 10% and SK Hynix down 12.3% — reflects an industrial economy unable to reprice energy costs that have risen 72% in ten days. The market response indicates Korean industry cannot sustain oil above $100 per barrel without margin compression across manufacturing, semiconductors, and shipping.
Migrant worker communities in the Gulf
The first confirmed civilian deaths in Saudi Arabia — one Indian and one Bangladeshi killed, twelve Bangladeshis wounded — fell on communities with no voice in the military decisions that placed them in harm's way. Migrant workers live near military installations because that housing is affordable, not by choice. Bangladesh and India face the dilemma of needing to protect nationals who cannot easily leave a war zone while depending on Gulf remittances that fund a substantial share of their domestic economies.
Azerbaijan — President Ilham Aliyev
Aliyev treats the Nakhchivan strikes as a direct act of war against Azerbaijani sovereignty, placing armed forces on full combat readiness and demanding an Iranian explanation.
The response is calibrated to maximise international sympathy while stopping short of military retaliation — Baku cannot fight Iran alone and needs either Turkish or NATO backing to credibly deter further strikes.
Oil-importing nations (Japan, South Korea, India)
The Hormuz closure is an existential threat.
Japan, South Korea, and India receive the majority of their crude through the strait — they will bear the heaviest economic cost of a war they had no part in.
Global South governments (Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa)
Neutrality was possible when the targets were military.
148 dead schoolgirls made it impossible — no government can explain that away to its own citizens.
Turkey
Has absorbed three Iranian ballistic missile interceptions since 4 March without invoking NATO Article 5 consultation. Each incident narrows Ankara's political room to continue absorbing without Alliance-level response.