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Iran Conflict 2026
1MAR

Iran fights two wars in the dark

3 min read
19:00UTC

In some provinces security forces have retreated; in others, unverified reports describe them firing on crowds celebrating Khamenei's death — and the internet blackout ensures neither claim can be confirmed.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Reports of security forces both retreating and firing on celebrating crowds reveal a fractured internal security apparatus operating without clear command authority during a simultaneous foreign war and succession crisis.

The reports are fragmentary, and deliberately so. With connectivity at 1% of normal for more than 48 hours, the only information leaving Iran travels through satellite phones, sporadic connections, and state media — none independently verifiable.

What reaches the outside describes a security apparatus behaving unevenly. In some provinces, forces have pulled back or been overwhelmed. In Ilam Province, the Dehloran governorate building was torched. In others, unverified social media accounts describe security forces firing on crowds celebrating the strikes that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei . These accounts cannot be corroborated under the blackout. The regime's behaviour in January 2026 establishes the precedent: under an identical internet shutdown , security forces killed an estimated 36,000 protesters over two days — a figure from Iran International that no independent body has verified — with Amnesty International documenting snipers on rooftops deliberately targeting heads and torsos .

But the January crackdown ran through a single chain of command ending at Khamenei. That chain no longer exists. The three-person interim council formed under Article 111 — Ayatollah Arafi, President Pezeshkian, and Chief Justice Mohseni-Ejei — has been in existence for fewer than 72 hours. Pezeshkian publicly apologised for the January killings . Whether this council has the cohesion to order lethal force at scale is unknown — and different provincial commanders may be answering that question independently.

The blackout compounds the problem in both directions. It prevents documentation of whatever the security forces are doing to Iranian civilians. It also prevents documentation of what US and Israeli strikes are doing to Iranian civilians — the images and testimony that would generate international pressure to halt the campaign. Iran's domestic repression infrastructure is simultaneously shielding its foreign adversaries from accountability.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Iran's security forces are not a single monolithic organisation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij militia, the regular army, and local police all operate with different loyalties, command chains, and motivations. Under normal circumstances, the Supreme Leader's direct authority kept these forces aligned. With Khamenei dead and no successor named, different units may be receiving contradictory orders — or no orders at all. The result is what the narrative describes: in some provinces, security forces are overwhelmed or pulling back (whether outnumbered, defected, or ordered to consolidate); in others, unverified reports suggest forces are firing on people celebrating the Israeli strikes. Both behaviours are consistent with a security apparatus in the early stages of fragmentation.

Deep Analysis
Synthesis

The reports from Iranian provinces — security forces retreating in some areas, firing on crowds in others — constitute the most significant indicator of potential regime fracture in the current dataset. They suggest the Iranian state is not uniformly collapsing or uniformly holding, but entering a differentiated provincial fragmentation in which outcomes will vary by geography, local security commander disposition, and the speed of the succession process. This fragmentation is difficult for any external actor to assess, predict, or influence, and it introduces the most dangerous variable of the crisis: the possibility of IRGC units with nuclear facility security responsibilities making autonomous decisions about access, transfer, or use of nuclear materials in the absence of central command.

Root Causes

The root cause is structural: Iran's internal security architecture was designed around a single command authority. The IRGC's political loyalty is fused with its theological loyalty through the concept of Velayat-e Faqih — without the faqih (supreme jurist), the ideological basis for that loyalty becomes contested. Simultaneous external military pressure, communications blackout, and civilian unrest are compounding factors, but they act on a pre-existing fragility that scholars of Iranian civil-military relations have long identified: the system cannot function as designed without the person it is designed to serve.

Escalation

This is the most volatile indicator in the current domestic picture. Two simultaneous behaviours — retreat and live fire — in different provinces indicate there is no unified operational directive governing internal security responses. As the foreign campaign continues and the succession vacuum persists, the probability of further fragmentation increases. The critical threshold is whether IRGC commanders at the provincial level begin making autonomous decisions about suppression or defection. Historical analogues from the final stages of the Shah's government in 1978–79 suggest that once security force defections become visible, they accelerate rapidly. The firing on celebrating crowds, if verified, risks creating martyrs whose deaths could transform unco-ordinated celebration into organised resistance.

What could happen next?
2 risk1 consequence1 meaning1 precedent
  • Risk

    IRGC units responsible for nuclear facility security may begin operating without central oversight, raising proliferation and safety risks that external parties cannot monitor given the communications blackout.

    Immediate · Suggested
  • Risk

    Security force firing on crowds celebrating foreign strikes risks creating martyrs that could transform unco-ordinated celebration into organised armed resistance.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Consequence

    Visible security force retreats in some provinces will encourage further challenge to state authority in those areas, creating de facto ungoverned zones.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Meaning

    The coexistence of retreat and lethal force in different provinces confirms there is no unified operational directive for internal security — a structural indicator of command fragmentation.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Precedent

    If security force defections become visible and documented, they will accelerate further defections — a dynamic historically observed in rapid authoritarian collapse.

    Short term · Suggested
First Reported In

Update #6 · Pentagon produced no evidence for Iran war

Al Jazeera· 1 Mar 2026
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Different Perspectives
South Korean financial markets
South Korean financial markets
South Korea, which imports virtually all its crude oil, is absorbing the war's economic transmission most acutely among non-belligerents. The second KOSPI circuit breaker in four sessions — with Samsung down over 10% and SK Hynix down 12.3% — reflects an industrial economy unable to reprice energy costs that have risen 72% in ten days. The market response indicates Korean industry cannot sustain oil above $100 per barrel without margin compression across manufacturing, semiconductors, and shipping.
Migrant worker communities in the Gulf
Migrant worker communities in the Gulf
The first confirmed civilian deaths in Saudi Arabia — one Indian and one Bangladeshi killed, twelve Bangladeshis wounded — fell on communities with no voice in the military decisions that placed them in harm's way. Migrant workers live near military installations because that housing is affordable, not by choice. Bangladesh and India face the dilemma of needing to protect nationals who cannot easily leave a war zone while depending on Gulf remittances that fund a substantial share of their domestic economies.
Azerbaijan — President Ilham Aliyev
Azerbaijan — President Ilham Aliyev
Aliyev treats the Nakhchivan strikes as a direct act of war against Azerbaijani sovereignty, placing armed forces on full combat readiness and demanding an Iranian explanation. The response is calibrated to maximise international sympathy while stopping short of military retaliation — Baku cannot fight Iran alone and needs either Turkish or NATO backing to credibly deter further strikes.
Oil-importing nations (Japan, South Korea, India)
Oil-importing nations (Japan, South Korea, India)
The Hormuz closure is an existential threat. Japan, South Korea, and India receive the majority of their crude through the strait — they will bear the heaviest economic cost of a war they had no part in.
Global South governments (Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa)
Global South governments (Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa)
Neutrality was possible when the targets were military. 148 dead schoolgirls made it impossible — no government can explain that away to its own citizens.
Turkey
Turkey
Has absorbed three Iranian ballistic missile interceptions since 4 March without invoking NATO Article 5 consultation. Each incident narrows Ankara's political room to continue absorbing without Alliance-level response.