29OCT

Brent slips to $98.38 on talks reports

1 min read

17:49UTC

Brent crude closed at $98.38 a barrel on 24 July, down 2.29 per cent, one day after crossing $100 for the first time since May. Reports of reviving mediation did the work.

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ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Brent gave back its move above $100 within a day, on mediation reports rather than any signed agreement.

Brent Crude, the global benchmark for seaborne oil, settled at $98.38 a barrel on 24 July, down 2.29 per cent, as reports circulated that mediation between Washington and Tehran was reviving⁠¹. The fall came a day after the contract crossed $100 for the first time since May.

Donald Trump spent 24 July telling Axios he was weighing a larger operation, and the price still fell. Traders priced the pause rather than the promise: a quiet night over Iranian airspace and mediation chatter around the Iraqi channel moved the benchmark down more than two per cent in a session, while the rhetoric moved it not at all.

Roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne crude passes through the Strait of Hormuz, so the conflict premium embedded in that $98.38 is a function of shipping risk rather than of barrels lost to date. The 24 July session showed that premium responding to diplomatic signals, which matters to refiners hedging cargoes and to Gulf producers setting budgets against a number that can move two dollars on a report neither government has confirmed.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Brent Crude is the main global price used for oil bought and sold by sea, and it affects what people pay for petrol and heating. It dropped by about 2 per cent on 24 July, to $98.38 a barrel, after reports suggested that US and Iranian mediators were talking again. The day before, the price had gone above $100 for the first time since May. Oil traders tend to react quickly to any hint of peace talks in this war, even before anyone confirms whether the talks are real, so prices can jump around a lot on rumour alone.

What could happen next?

Consequence
A one-day price fall on mediation rumours, rather than a confirmed diplomatic breakthrough, leaves Brent vulnerable to snapping back if the reports prove unfounded.

Sources:Trading Economics

Mentions:Brent Crude →Axios →Tehran →Washington →Strait of Hormuz →Donald Trump →

First Reported In

Update #161 · Bahrain and Kuwait struck Iran, WSJ reports

Trading Economics· 25 Jul 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

CENTCOM pauses as Trump warns of more

Brent fell on the night CENTCOM did not fly rather than on Trump's rhetoric.

Occurred 24 Jul 2026

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Brent tops $100 as the reroute closes

Brent's fall to $98.38 reverses part of the record climb above $100 the day before.

Occurred 22 Jul 2026

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This Event

Brent slips to $98.38 on talks reports

The benchmark gave back its gain on the day American strikes paused, which puts a price on the difference between a quiet night and a presidential threat.

Led to

Brent gives back its escalation gain

Brent's earlier ease on mediation reports prefigures this week's fall on the Riyadh coalition announcement.

Occurred 31 Jul 2026

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Different Perspectives

United States (Joint Maritime Information Center)

The JMIC, the US-led naval reporting cell, rated the Hormuz threat "severe" in its 25 October advisory, as reported by gCaptain, and warned of possible renewed mining. Eight days earlier it found no substantiation for the Guards' mine claims, while US-facilitated transits ran at about 34 a day.

United Kingdom (CPS and Counter Terrorism Policing)

The CPS charged two men under the National Security Act 2023 over the RAF Fairford incident, and Counter Terrorism Policing said it believes the foreign intelligence service involved is Iran's, LBC reported. The case now runs through the courts; both men are charged, not convicted.

Aden and Yemen's recognised government

The Houthis told people to leave Aden airport, in the government-held south, before a missile fell there on 28 October, AFP reported, and police reported a second attack that afternoon. The fight between Riyadh and the Houthis is landing on the south's main civilian airport.

Qatar (mediators)

Qatar-led mediators put new terms to Iran this week, which an Iranian official called "ideas, not a proposal". Riyadh framed the Tehran meeting as support for Qatari and Pakistani mediation, keeping Doha at the centre of the indirect channel.

Korea Shipowners' Association

The association said the ships Iran listed were sub-chartered to an overseas oil company, not owned by Sinokor, carried no South Korean crew, and that Sinokor was unaware of the warning. South Korea's shipowners are contesting whose vessels the notice covers before it takes effect.

Kuwait (foreign ministry)

Kuwait summoned Iran's ambassador, Mohammad Toutounji, and handed him a protest note over the embassy's denial that its citizen took part in the alleged plot against Interior Minister Fahad Al-Yousef. Kuwait is answering through its courts and a diplomatic protest, citing international law and the UN Charter.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.