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Iran Conflict 2026
7AUG

Seven ships veer clear of the strait

1 min read
12:08UTC

Seven vessels have diverted away from the Bab al-Mandab since the tanker strikes, according to ship-tracking data, closing the southern reroute in practice.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

With ships avoiding both straits, Gulf-to-Europe crude faces the long route round the Cape and a wider insurance exclusion.

Seven vessels have diverted away from the Bab al-Mandab since the 22 July tanker strikes, according to ship-tracking data 1. the strait, the southern passage past Yemen through which Gulf oil reaches the Suez Canal, had absorbed traffic pushed off the Hormuz route as the northern chokepoint tightened.

The diversions turn a single attack into a routing problem for every owner weighing the southern passage. Hormuz weekly transits had already fallen 66% before this ; avoiding the Bab al-Mandab as well leaves the long haul around the Cape of Good Hope as the remaining way from the Gulf to Europe, adding roughly ten days and the fuel bill to match. War-risk underwriters, who have held a Hormuz exclusion for weeks, now have a fresh southern-strait case on which to widen it.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Ship-tracking data shows seven vessels have chosen to avoid the Bab al-Mandab strait entirely since the tanker strikes began, sailing the long way round Africa instead. It is a small number so far, but it shows some shipping companies have decided the risk of sailing through the strait is no longer worth it, whatever the extra cost of the longer route.

First Reported In

Update #160 · Houthis hit Saudi tankers; Brent tops $100

Al Jazeera· 23 Jul 2026
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Causes and effects
Different Perspectives
Shipping and insurance industry
Shipping and insurance industry
UKMTO counted about 20 US-facilitated Hormuz transits a day to 11 September against only 6 visible on AIS, with traffic still around 90% below the 138-a-day pre-war baseline. War-risk underwriters cannot price hulls they cannot see, or resolve whether the tanker El Gaia hit a mine, as Iran claims, or a missile and drone, as CENTCOM says.
European refiners
European refiners
European refiners, including Poland's Orlen, absorbed a roughly $26 gap between Dated Brent at $130.80 on 15 September and ICE Brent futures settling at $103.87 on 18 September, a spread that widened from $13.45 on 9 September rather than newly opening. Their futures hedges no longer cover what they now pay for physical barrels.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Aramco zeroed European term customers' October allocations and rerouted roughly 60 million barrels to Asia through Ras Tanura and Sohar, using Red Sea and Gulf terminal capacity built years ago to cut Hormuz exposure. Riyadh reallocated existing supply rather than negotiating a shortfall with Europe.
Qatar
Qatar
Qatar's energy minister Saad al-Kaabi told Bloomberg at the Qatar Economic Forum on 20 September that Bessent's two-year Hormuz-obsolescence forecast is wrong, and that Doha has deliberately built no bypass pipeline. Qatar's gas exports run through one waterway by choice, not oversight.
Iran (foreign ministry and Majlis)
Iran (foreign ministry and Majlis)
Iran's foreign ministry and 130 Majlis deputies moved toward NPT withdrawal this week, with lawmaker Hossein-Ali Haji Deligani filing a triple-urgency bill on 20 September that Speaker Qalibaf has not yet scheduled. Tehran treats treaty membership as leverage still on the table, not yet spent.
Russia and China
Russia and China
Moscow and Beijing vetoed the Panel of Experts' renewal, maintaining Resolution 2231 lapsed in October 2025 and the 2025 snapback was never validly triggered, so the sanctions architecture the Panel enforces has no current legal standing. Both governments frame the veto as upholding law, not shielding Tehran.