The basis between the Central European Gas Hub (CEGH) and TTF widened to roughly €1.62/MWh on a day-ahead basis on 17 June, the ban-binding day, around four times the €0.41 reading of 11 June, on CEGH exchange data1. CEGH is Austria's virtual trading point at Baumgarten, historically tracking TTF closely; the basis is the premium Central European buyers pay over the Dutch benchmark. CEGH day-ahead settled €42.742, the €1.62 gap sitting above the same-day TTF print covered in event 2.
The widening reflected one-day supply uncertainty at the Kipi margin, the Greek-Turkish pipeline crossing through which non-EU molecules enter the grid, as the ban bound. It was small and physical, consistent with TurkStream's long-term contracts staying exempt to September 2027, which limited the volume the regulation actually removed. The market had already isolated this premium as an uncorroborated bid that diverged from the flat prompt.
The premium did not hold. On 18 June, the Iran-relief session, CEGH eased to €42.050 and the basis compressed back toward flat as TTF firmed2. The widening was a single-session event, not a structural step-change, but it was tradeable: a desk that bought the CEGH-TTF basis into the binding date and sold it the next day captured the one mark the ban left on the curve. The lesson for a Central European basis trader is narrow: the regulation's physical bite was a one-day move at one hub, not a durable repricing.
