22JUL

Brent at $101.91 erases Trump ceasefire relief

1 min read

12:09UTC

Brent crude closed at $101.91 on 23 April, up more than 3 per cent on the IRGC seizures, erasing the post-extension decline recorded after Trump's 21 April Truth Social post. CENTCOM's cumulative vessel-intercept figure reached 28 on Day 54, up from 25 on Day 52.

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Key takeaway

One trading session of ceasefire relief priced out of Brent the morning boarding parties replaced the verbal truce.

Brent Crude traded at $101.91 on 23 April, up more than 3 per cent on the IRGC seizure news, GlobalSecurity.org reported ¹. Brent had crossed $100 on expiry morning then fell to $97.91 after Trump's ceasefire-extension post ; a single session of relief was priced out by the 22 April boardings.

The close extends the structural comparison with Brent's 7 per cent Monday surge that followed the IRGC-corridor divergence. Verbal de-escalation bought the market one trading day; kinetic action took back three per cent the next morning. For European hauliers and haulage desks that means the ceasefire announcement was noise, not signal.

CENTCOM's cumulative vessel-intercept figure reached 28 on Day 54, up from 25 on Day 52 ². Three added intercepts between Days 52 and 54 show the US port-blockade still widening while The White House and Pakistan extend the verbal ceasefire indefinitely. Two US institutions, one commanding naval assets and one issuing presidential posts, are running in opposite directions on the same strait.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Brent crude is the main global oil price benchmark, named after a North Sea oilfield. On 23 April it was trading at $101.91 per barrel, up more than 3% on the news of Iran's ship seizures. What makes this significant is that just two days earlier, when Trump announced the ceasefire extension, the price had fallen to around $97.91 on the relief that fighting might be winding down. The seizures wiped out that entire price fall and pushed oil back above $100. This tells you something about what oil markets believe: a social media post from a US president cannot override the actions of Iranian naval forces on the water. Oil traders are pricing what happens on the water: two ships seized and one fired on moved Brent up 3%, while Trump's ceasefire post had moved it down roughly 2% the day before. Before the war, Brent was around $67 per barrel. At $101.91, UK petrol stations and home heating fuel prices remain well above pre-war levels.

Sources:GlobalSecurity.org

Mentions:Brent Crude →Donald Trump →GlobalSecurity.org →Pakistan →Iran →Truth Social →White House →Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) →CENTCOM (US Central Command) →

First Reported In

Update #77 · Pentagon: six months to clear Hormuz mines

GlobalSecurity.org· 23 Apr 2026

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Causes and effects

This Event

Brent at $101.91 erases Trump ceasefire relief

The price close tells charterers and refiners the market is reading kinetic action over verbal ceasefire. CENTCOM's rising intercept tally confirms the US port-blockade is still widening even while the executive is publicly committing to de-escalation.

Led to

Brent closes at $105.73, dark activity rises

9 transits advance from the Day 54 pattern when CENTCOM intercepts at 28 drove Brent to $101.91

Occurred 24 Apr 2026

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Different Perspectives

Jordan

Jordan's armed forces downed three Iranian missiles on Tuesday with no casualties, a second successful interception since the 19 July strike on Muwaffaq Salti that killed three US service members. Amman has neither confirmed nor denied ISW's assessment that its intelligence sharing is a Russia-China cover story.

Operation Aspides

Operation Aspides has not needed to intervene against the Houthi Bab al-Mandab embargo: six vessels, including the Chinese VLCC Xin Long Yang, reversed course after radio hailing alone, with no vessel boarded, fired on or stopped by force.

Pete Hegseth, US Secretary of War

Hegseth told the Senate Appropriations Committee the campaign has cost $37.5 billion so far, without saying whether the figure is obligated, appropriated or incremental. It is the first cost Washington has put on the war, arriving as OMB seeks $87.6 billion for the wider supplemental.

Iran's IRGC and Artesh

Iran's IRGC and Artesh reported destroying radar and Patriot installations at four Gulf bases on Tuesday night, the fifth dated iteration of the same claim against the same sites since 13 July. Neither Kuwait nor Bahrain has named or confirmed a single base as destroyed.

Saudi Arabia

Riyadh has pressed Washington to end the Hormuz blockade specifically to remove Tehran's incentive for the Houthis to escalate Bab al-Mandab beyond radio warnings. It treats the embargo as coordinated pressure on Saudi shipping tied to the Hormuz campaign, not an independent Yemeni action.

Kuwait's Ministry of Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy and defence ministry

Kuwait reported power and desalination stations struck for a fourth consecutive day and four cruise missiles plus 21 drones intercepted since dawn Wednesday, while its defence ministry statement used only the word interception, never destruction. Kuwait has confirmed no Iranian claim of a destroyed base.