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Iran Conflict 2026
18JUL

Two US carriers stay, blockade runs on

3 min read
13:17UTC

The USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS George H.W. Bush remained on station in the Gulf as of 18 June, the blockade still redirecting vessels, despite the memorandum's clause that it be removed immediately.

← Back to US bombing moves inland as blockade hardensJump to analysis ↓
ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Two carriers on station are the proof the order to lift the blockade never reached the fleet.

Two US carrier strike groups, built around the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS George H.W. Bush, remained on station in the Gulf region as of 17-18 June 1. CENTCOM (US Central Command), the US military command for the Middle East, has issued no drawdown order, and the naval blockade continues to redirect vessels, despite the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) clause that the blockade be "removed immediately."

The blockade is the apparatus that has throttled Iranian seaborne trade through the war, turning the strait into a corridor ships transit only on US sufferance. Trump signed the MOU and ordered the blockade lifted on 16 June , but CENTCOM kept it running pending a signed instrument it has not received. The carriers on station are the physical evidence that the order has not reached the water.

The shipping industry reads operations, not press releases. Insurers, mine-clearance crews and tanker owners need an on-water change before commercial transits resume; a memorandum does not move a hull. Hormuz logged zero new tanker transits the day after Trump signed . The Geneva signing ceremony was scrapped, and Baghaei confirmed the text was finalised electronically, the presidents' signatures applied digitally rather than at any podium.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Think of the naval blockade as a lock on a gate that is run by one department and the key as a different document held by another department. When the US President signed the Islamabad MOU, he was handing over a promise to unlock the gate. But the military commanders operating the lock need a separate written order from the Defence Department before they can actually turn the key. As of 18 June, that order had not arrived. So both aircraft carriers, the Abraham Lincoln and the George H.W. Bush, stayed in position, redirecting ships just as before. The gate remained locked. Separately, the sea still has live floating mines in it. Even if the lock were opened, no commercial ship would sail through a minefield without a guarantee that the mines had been removed.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The blockade-stays problem has a structural cause independent of politics: the CENTCOM enforcement mechanism runs on a separate chain of command from the diplomatic track that produced the MOU. Trump signed the MOU as the US executive; the blockade is operationalised by CENTCOM via the Secretary of Defense chain. Without a National Security Council decision memo, a SecDef order, and a CENTCOM operational directive, the blockade runs by default.

Mine-clearance progress also blocks the blockade lift. Hormuz was still seeded with active mines on 18 June. BIMCO and the International Chamber of Shipping have stated publicly that commercial vessels will not transit an uncleared minefield regardless of what a ceasefire agreement says. The operational prerequisite for the blockade lift, cleared lanes, does not yet exist.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    An incident between an on-station carrier and an IRGC vessel, as happened on 15 June with the 'last warning' radio transmission, could escalate to an exchange of fire that voids the MOU before the 19 June ceremony.

    Immediate · Reported
  • Consequence

    The carrier stay gives Iran a public talking point: the US blockade continues despite the signed MOU, symmetrically matching Iran's own non-compliance on Lebanon.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Precedent

    If the blockade does not begin to lift within seven days of signing, insurers will treat the MOU as a rhetorical instrument rather than an operational change, maintaining war-risk exclusions and keeping effective transit near zero.

    Short term · Assessed
Sources:Al Jazeera·The War Zone
Mentions:CENTCOM (US Central Command) →Esmaeil Baqaei →Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding →Vietnam →Islamabad →Geneva →The War Zone →Paris →North Korea →Pentagon →USS Abraham Lincoln →USS George H.W. Bush →
First Reported In

Update #131 · Iran deal's first death tests the text

Al Jazeera· 18 Jun 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
Trump signed Hormuz open; war ran on
Trump signed the MOU and ordered the blockade lifted but CENTCOM received no signed drawdown instrument, leaving the carriers on station.
Occurred 16 Jun 2026
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This Event
Two US carriers stay, blockade runs on
Insurers and shippers need an on-water change, not a memorandum, before tankers move.
Led to
Oil prices a Hormuz reopening that has not happened
Brent pricing a blockade lift that two on-station carrier strike groups and no CENTCOM drawdown order refute.
Occurred 18 Jun 2026
Read story →
The carriers that did not leave
The USS Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush holding station on 18 June (event 8) continued the posture already established per ID:4308 with still no drawdown order issued.
Occurred 18 Jun 2026
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Different Perspectives
Jordan
Jordan
Jordan has not addressed the IRGC's claim that Jordanian civilians and soldiers supplied targeting intelligence for the 20 July Aqaba strike, even as its deputy prime minister received a condemnation call over Iran's earlier missile fire. The base has now produced the war's first confirmed American deaths on Jordanian soil.
CENTCOM
CENTCOM
CENTCOM confirmed a third American service member died in northern Iraq on 19 July clearing unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian drone, and recovered unidentified remains at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. The Pentagon has framed its Khuzestan strikes as degrading IRGC capacity, a rationale that stretches to explain a reactor foundation with no nuclear material in it.
Kuwait
Kuwait
Kuwait's military said it was confronting Iranian attacks after the Shuaiba power and desalination complex burned for the second time in two days on 19 July, following an earlier ministry request that households ration water. Roughly 90 per cent of Kuwait's drinking water depends on the same generating units Iran keeps hitting.
IRGC
IRGC
The IRGC claimed a 21st wave of Operation Nasr-2 struck Aqaba Airport and Azraq on 20 July, destroying hangars and aircraft, and thanked Jordanians for supplying intelligence. No US, Jordanian or Kuwaiti source has confirmed any part of the claim, which Press TV alone carried.
IAEA
IAEA
The IAEA said it is looking into reports of a 19 July strike on the Darkhovin nuclear plant construction site, confirming inspectors found no nuclear material there on their last visit. Grossi again called for restraint near nuclear sites, a faster response than the four months of silence that followed the disputed Bushehr strike.
Shipping and war-risk insurers
Shipping and war-risk insurers
War-risk premiums for Hormuz transits reached 3 to 10 per cent of hull value on 17 July, against 0.25 per cent before the war, as Brent cleared $87 and daily transits fell to eight vessels. Underwriters are pricing the confirmed UKMTO mine near the Traffic Separation Scheme, not the IRGC's unconfirmed 18 July mining claim, which CENTCOM called false.