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Iran Conflict 2026
18JUN

Brent at $92 as premiums idle tankers

3 min read
10:02UTC

Brent reached $92.09 on Wednesday morning, a fourth straight daily gain, while war-risk premiums of 3% to 10% of hull value keep legal cargo sitting where it is.

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Key takeaway

Gulf cargo stays put because of what it costs to insure, not because of what blocks it.

Brent crude traded at $92.09 at 01:30 GMT on Wednesday 22 July, up 1.2% and its highest since 11 June, a fourth consecutive daily gain 1.

War-risk premiums for a Strait of Hormuz transit now run at 3% to 10% of a vessel's hull value, against 0.25% before the war 2. On a $100 million tanker that is $3m to $10m a voyage where it used to be about $250,000. The largest vessels are quoted $10m to $14m, and the charge falls on the charterer rather than the owner.

Whoever books the ship pays that premium up front and adds it to the delivered cost of the barrels. A buyer with any alternative supplier declines the cargo, and the charter is never fixed. So a legal, licensed, fully insurable parcel of crude sits where it is, because nobody at either end of the voyage will carry a $10 million charge the barrels cannot recover. The Lloyd's Market Association is explicit that cover remains available: what suppresses transits is price and crew willingness, not capacity 3. Underwriting resets slowly, and crews have longer memories than markets.

CENTCOM (US Central Command) frames the same water differently. Its 21 July statement says US forces have facilitated the transit of roughly 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude "since early May", redirected eight vessels and disabled one 4. No date window is attached to the 900-vessel figure, so it cannot be set against the 66% weekly fall in transits recorded on 21 July . The two counts cover different things over different periods.

In a note dated 20 July, Daan Struyven of Goldman Sachs set out an upside case of Brent above $120 by the fourth quarter, conditional on Hormuz disruption persisting and Persian Gulf flows staying below roughly 45% of pre-war levels 5. Goldman's base case is $80 in the fourth quarter and about $75 in 2027 6. The higher number describes what happens if nothing changes, not what the bank expects.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Brent crude, the main international oil price benchmark, rose to $92.09 a barrel, its highest level since 11 June and the fourth straight daily rise. Oil often gets more expensive when investors worry that war could disrupt supply, even before that disruption actually happens. A lot of this price rise comes down to insurance, not ships actually being stopped. Sailing through the Gulf now costs shipping companies far more in war-risk insurance than before the war, and that extra cost is passed on. Insurers say enough cover is technically available, it has simply become expensive enough that some owners choose not to sail. Goldman Sachs, a major investment bank, has said oil could go above $120 a barrel later this year, but only if the situation gets significantly worse. Its actual expectation for now is closer to $80.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

War-risk premiums of 3-10% of hull value, not a shortage of naval capacity or insurance cover, are what is keeping tankers from sailing the Gulf, according to the Lloyd's Market Association. For the largest vessels, insurers are seeking $10-14 million per Hormuz voyage, a cost charged to the charterer rather than the shipowner.

Because that liability sits with charterers and crews rather than a fixed physical bottleneck, the decision to sail is a commercial one made voyage by voyage, which is why price continues climbing even as CENTCOM reports it is still moving substantial volumes through the strait.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    If Gulf flows fall and stay below roughly 45% of pre-war levels through Q4, Goldman's contingent $120+ scenario becomes the operative case rather than its $80 base case.

  • Opportunity

    Because the Lloyd's Market Association says insurance capacity remains available, a de-escalation could unwind the price premium quickly, as happened after the 1990 Gulf War spike.

Sources:CENTCOM·The National·Bloomberg
Mentions:Brent Crude →Lloyd's Market Association →Daan Struyven →Goldman Sachs →CENTCOM (US Central Command) →Strait of Hormuz →Persian Gulf →Kuwait →Brent-WTI →
First Reported In

Update #159 · A second strait closes by radio alone

CENTCOM· 22 Jul 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
Hormuz crossings fall by two thirds
The 66% weekly fall in Hormuz transits recorded on 21 July is the baseline against which the 22 July Brent rise and CENTCOM's throughput claim are measured.
Occurred 21 Jul 2026
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This Event
Brent at $92 as premiums idle tankers
Insurance pricing rather than naval capacity is what stops the ships, which is why Gulf traffic will not snap back when the shooting stops.
Led to
Brent tops $100 as the reroute closes
Brent's rise past $100 advances directly from the prior day's $92.09 close.
Occurred 22 Jul 2026
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Different Perspectives
Lloyd's Market Association
Lloyd's Market Association
War-risk underwriters price the Houthis' Red Sea attacks because the group announces its targets in advance, but the unclaimed Damietta drone gives insurers a hit with no author to price against. An attack nobody claims costs shipping more than one that is claimed, since premiums are set against a known pattern, not raw damage.
US Central Command
US Central Command
CENTCOM has announced no strike on Iran since resuming bombing on 30 July within hours of an IRGC salvo on Jordan, and centcom.mil did not respond to requests to confirm any pause. The command has gone quiet before while a larger operation was being weighed, so silence alone proves nothing about what it has or has not done.
Hengaw
Hengaw
Hengaw recorded at least 67 executions in Iran during July, of which the state acknowledged only eight, and reported the 1 August execution of protest detainee Arvin Kheirkhahan at Shahrud with no advance notice to his family. A family's first notice of a death sentence is now usually the instruction to collect a body.
Egypt
Egypt
Egypt's government asked media on 2 August to report the Damietta attack accurately, named no author, and said no findings will be published before its own investigation concludes. Cairo holds the debris and jurisdiction over an attack on its own soil, and naming a culprit now would pull it into a dispute it has avoided for five months.
Iran's Foreign Ministry
Iran's Foreign Ministry
Araghchi called the Hormuz talks with Oman final-stage on 2 August, four days after his own deputy rejected Oman's lane proposal, and denied the Damietta drone strike as an Israeli false flag while two Iranian officials privately claimed it for Tehran. Iran's public position now contradicts itself on both files at once.
Bahrain and Kuwait
Bahrain and Kuwait
Bahraini and Kuwaiti aircraft flew their own strikes on Iranian depots in July with Emirati air cover behind them, and Ynetnews reports some Gulf capitals wanted the 2 August strike to proceed rather than stop. States that have already taken fire see a closing window on Iranian weakness, not a reason to pause.