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Iran Conflict 2026
14JUN

Brent holds at $95 as markets wait

2 min read
11:42UTC

Oil prices stayed flat at $95-97, pricing a sustained stalemate rather than confidence in resolution.

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ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Brent above $95 reflects a market that expects neither resolution nor collapse.

Brent Crude traded between $95.20 and $96.69 on 11-12 April, essentially flat from the prior update's $96.39 . The post-ceasefire drop to $92 proved temporary; Brent has since recovered and settled into a narrow band above $95.

The flat range tells a story. Markets are not pricing in a clean resolution. They are not pricing in a return to conflict either. They are pricing a structural stalemate: the Hormuz Strait stays mostly closed, supply stays constrained, and nobody knows what happens when the ceasefire expires.

Oxford Economics projects world GDP growth at 1.4% in 2026 if the conflict persists, down from a 2.6% baseline. War risk insurance premiums remain four to five times pre-war levels. Commercial vessels rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope add 10 to 20 days per voyage, and US importer freight rates have risen by up to 50%.

Most equity markets have not yet priced in a sustained conflict scenario, which means the current oil price may be an underestimate of the economic shock if the ceasefire collapses without a replacement framework. Brent peaked sharply higher before the ceasefire was announced; a return to those levels would sharpen the GDP drag considerably.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Brent crude is the global oil price benchmark. It is trading just above $95 per barrel, roughly $20 above where it was before the conflict. The fact it has stayed flat, neither rising sharply nor falling, tells you what the markets think: they expect the stalemate to continue for a while, but they do not expect a catastrophic escalation either. Oxford Economics, one of the most widely-cited economic forecasting institutions, estimates that if this conflict drags on, the world economy will grow by only 1.4% in 2026, down from 2.6% without the conflict. That 1.2-percentage-point reduction does not sound like much, but at the scale of the global economy it represents roughly $1.2 trillion in lost output, roughly the entire GDP of Spain for a year. For ordinary people, the most direct effect is energy costs. Sustained $95+ Brent flows through to petrol, diesel, gas, and electricity prices over weeks to months.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Markets pricing a structural stalemate rather than resolution means Brent will stay elevated regardless of ceasefire expiry, unless Hormuz transit actually resumes at scale, a signal the first oil tanker full transit would provide.

  • Risk

    The Oxford Economics 1.4% global growth scenario is predicated on sustained conflict without re-escalation; a return to active hostilities would trigger a spike above $110, potentially pushing the global economy into recession territory.

Sources:Stimson Center
Mentions:Cape of Good Hope →Strait of Hormuz Toll System →Oxford Economics →Brent Crude →
First Reported In

Update #66 · Islamabad collapses: 10 days to expiry

Stimson Center· 12 Apr 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
Brent crude recovers from post-ceasefire low
Brent at $96.39 (ID:2211) held essentially flat to the $95.20-$96.69 range on 11-12 April, confirming sustained market pricing of the conflict stalemate.
Occurred 11 Apr 2026
Read story →
This Event
Brent holds at $95 as markets wait
Rangebound Brent above $95 means markets have not priced in a clean resolution, and the economic cost of the conflict is accumulating, not receding.
Led to
Oil surges past $103 on blockade
Brent at $95-97 on 11-12 April jumped 8% past $103 as the blockade announcement repriced markets from stalemate to active escalation.
Occurred 13 Apr 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
Qatar (mediator)
Qatar (mediator)
Qatari negotiators flew to Tehran on Sunday morning to close remaining gaps between the parties, operating as the primary shuttle channel. Qatar's role is to bridge the civilian-track gap the IRGC veto has left.
IAEA / Rafael Grossi
IAEA / Rafael Grossi
Grossi replied to Araghchi's 13 June protection-of-materials letter the same day, citing Iran's NPT Safeguards Agreement obligation to declare any nuclear material transfer. With 97 days of lost inspector access and approximately 240 kg unaccounted, Grossi has treaty text and no inspectors on the ground to enforce it.
United Arab Emirates
United Arab Emirates
The UAE state oil company assessed full Hormuz flows will not resume until 2027 even with a fast deal, citing demining, inspection, and insurance timelines. The UAE ambassador to Washington said a simple ceasefire is not enough.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
The IRGC ran naval exercises in Hormuz during Geneva talks and its political deputy declared Iran was negotiating from a position of strength. The corps has not endorsed the MoU; by amplifying Mashhad protests through Fars, it is framing any deal as conditions it imposed rather than a concession it accepted.
Iran Foreign Ministry / Araghchi
Iran Foreign Ministry / Araghchi
Araghchi's dilute-in-Iran red line was met by the US concession, but his foreign ministry spokesman said Tehran had not taken a final decision and a signing might come in days, not Sunday. Araghchi separately wrote to the IAEA pledging to protect nuclear materials as dilution negotiations advanced.
White House / US negotiating team
White House / US negotiating team
Washington accepted dilution inside Iran rather than ship-out, its first substantive material concession in 106 days, the New York Times reported. With the White House register blank and the ceremony slipped a third weekend, the administration has moved its negotiating position without yet producing a document.