The Bank of Russia held its key rate at 14% on 11 September and put motor fuel price rises in the list of drivers behind both headline and underlying inflation. Annual inflation read 6.3% on 7 September, a trailing twelve-month rate, while the underlying measure accelerated to between 5 and 6% when recent months are annualised. The board attributed that to a temporary reduction in production capacity in certain sectors.
Read the wording exactly as written. The bank named a price, not an enemy. Russian ministers have blamed seasonal demand and refinery maintenance all summer, and Vladimir Putin admitted petrol queues in June without conceding a cause. What changed on 11 September is the file the fuel problem now sits in: monetary policy, set by the institution that prices borrowing for every Russian firm.
Ukraine's campaign against refining has run on claims until now, from the 2,500km strike on Omsk in July to the queues Putin conceded. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air measured the Sheskharis strike cutting Novorossiysk loadings 58% month on month, and seaborne oil product export revenue falling 32% to €78mn a day. China took 16% more Russian crude over the same month, so the barrels still move even as refining at home stalls.
