8JUN

Brent slips to $98.38 on talks reports

1 min read

09:58UTC

Brent crude closed at $98.38 a barrel on 24 July, down 2.29 per cent, one day after crossing $100 for the first time since May. Reports of reviving mediation did the work.

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ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Brent gave back its move above $100 within a day, on mediation reports rather than any signed agreement.

Brent Crude, the global benchmark for seaborne oil, settled at $98.38 a barrel on 24 July, down 2.29 per cent, as reports circulated that mediation between Washington and Tehran was reviving ¹. The fall came a day after the contract crossed $100 for the first time since May .

Donald Trump spent 24 July telling Axios he was weighing a larger operation, and the price still fell. Traders priced the pause rather than the promise: a quiet night over Iranian airspace and mediation chatter around the Iraqi channel moved the benchmark down more than two per cent in a session, while the rhetoric moved it not at all.

Roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne crude passes through the Strait of Hormuz, so the conflict premium embedded in that $98.38 is a function of shipping risk rather than of barrels lost to date. The 24 July session showed that premium responding to diplomatic signals, which matters to refiners hedging cargoes and to Gulf producers setting budgets against a number that can move two dollars on a report neither government has confirmed.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Brent crude is the main global price used for oil bought and sold by sea, and it affects what people pay for petrol and heating. It dropped by about 2 per cent on 24 July, to $98.38 a barrel, after reports suggested that US and Iranian mediators were talking again. The day before, the price had gone above $100 for the first time since May. Oil traders tend to react quickly to any hint of peace talks in this war, even before anyone confirms whether the talks are real, so prices can jump around a lot on rumour alone.

What could happen next?

Consequence
A one-day price fall on mediation rumours, rather than a confirmed diplomatic breakthrough, leaves Brent vulnerable to snapping back if the reports prove unfounded.

Sources:Trading Economics

Mentions:Brent Crude →Axios →Tehran →Washington →Strait of Hormuz →Donald Trump →

First Reported In

Update #161 · Bahrain and Kuwait struck Iran, WSJ reports

Trading Economics· 25 Jul 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

CENTCOM pauses as Trump warns of more

Brent fell on the night CENTCOM did not fly rather than on Trump's rhetoric.

Occurred 24 Jul 2026

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Brent tops $100 as the reroute closes

Brent's fall to $98.38 reverses part of the record climb above $100 the day before.

Occurred 22 Jul 2026

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This Event

Brent slips to $98.38 on talks reports

The benchmark gave back its gain on the day American strikes paused, which puts a price on the difference between a quiet night and a presidential threat.

Led to

Brent gives back its escalation gain

Brent's earlier ease on mediation reports (ID:5302) prefigures this week's fall on the Riyadh coalition announcement.

Occurred 31 Jul 2026

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Different Perspectives

Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi

Golden Global told Turkey's KAP on 4 September that the parties OFAC named are not its customers and it had no dealings with them. It plans to contest the designation.

CENTCOM (US Central Command)

CENTCOM says its ships evaded the IRGC's 5 September missiles unharmed, then disabled two Iranian tankers and destroyed a third within hours. Admiral Cooper named that three-for-two ratio himself.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

The IRGC Navy claimed strikes on six vessels, three tankers and three US-linked ships, on 5 and 6 September, naming none of them. It conceded its own tankers were hit.

China's foreign ministry

Spokesman Lin Jian rejected Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's 25 August warning that Iranian oil buyers face an "economic D-Day", saying sanctions do not help and that Beijing would safeguard its own rights and interests. China's Iranian crude imports had already halved for unrelated reasons.

Iraq's government and Erbil authorities

Erbil authorities said 10 explosive-laden drones were shot down over the city on 1-2 September with no casualties. Iraq's government condemned the attacks without naming Iran as their source, and neither Washington nor Baghdad confirmed the IRGC's claim to have hit US bases there.

Bahrain Defence Force

The General Command said air defences intercepted several Iranian missiles and drones on 1-2 September and called the use of such weapons against civilians and private property a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law.