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Iran Conflict 2026
31MAY

CIA and Mossad hunt for Khamenei

4 min read
09:14UTC

Thirteen days after being named supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared in public. Western intelligence agencies cannot confirm he is alive and capable of command.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Western intelligence has no proof of life for Iran's wartime supreme leader after 13 days.

Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public since the Assembly of Experts named him Supreme Leader on 9 March — thirteen days without a video appearance, a voice recording, or a verified photograph. His sole substantive act has been a written Nowruz message, read by a presenter on state television, claiming the "enemy has been defeated" and urging media to "refrain from focusing on weaknesses" . Every Supreme Leader since the Islamic Republic's founding in 1979 has delivered a televised Nowruz address in person . Mojtaba did not.

The CIA, Mossad, and allied intelligence agencies are actively searching for evidence that Khamenei is alive and functioning, Axios reported, citing US and allied officials 1. One US official stated: "We don't think the Iranians would have gone through all this trouble to choose a dead guy as The Supreme Leader, but at the same time, we have no proof that he is taking the helm" 2. A leaked audio recording obtained by The Telegraph — from Mazaher Hosseini, head of protocol for Ali Khamenei's office, speaking at a 12 March meeting — described Mojtaba stepping into his garden moments before ballistic missiles struck his home on 28 February. His wife and son were killed instantly. He survived with a leg injury, by "mere seconds" . Defence Secretary Hegseth subsequently claimed Khamenei is "wounded and likely disfigured." Trump told reporters on 10 March: "We don't know if he's dead or not... A lot of people are saying that he's badly disfigured" . The IDF has publicly named him as an assassination target — Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin stated on camera: "He is not immune. We will pursue him, find him, and neutralise him" .

Iran's constitution vests The Supreme Leader with sole command of all armed forces and sole authority to declare war or accept its end. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters — which issued the counter-threat to Trump's 48-hour power-grid ultimatum — reports directly to him. The Diego Garcia missile strike, which revealed a 4,000 km range Iran had publicly denied possessing, required authorisation from the supreme command level. If Khamenei cannot function, Article 111 of the constitution provides for a temporary three-member Leadership Council — the president, the head of the judiciary, and a Guardian Council jurist. This mechanism has never been activated, and its members lack both the IRGC's institutional loyalty and the theological authority The Supreme Leader holds as velayat-e faqih, the guardianship of the Islamic jurist that is the constitutional foundation of the office's power. Any diplomatic off-ramp also requires a counterpart with authority to agree terms — and it is unclear who that counterpart is. Iran is fighting a war in which the individual constitutionally responsible for both prosecuting and ending hostilities has not been verified as functional by any Western or allied intelligence service in thirteen days.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

In Iran's political system, the supreme leader holds authority above the president, parliament, and military. Generals require political authorisation before making decisions that could escalate to full-scale war. Mojtaba Khamenei was named to this role on 9 March — but has not appeared in public, spoken on camera, or issued any verified voice communication since. The CIA and Mossad are actively searching for proof he is alive and functional. This matters operationally: if no one with recognised authority can accept a ceasefire offer or authorise a military stand-down, the machinery for ending this conflict is missing a critical component at precisely the moment Trump's 48-hour ultimatum requires a functional Iranian counterpart.

Deep Analysis
Synthesis

The absence intersects with Trump's 48-hour ultimatum in a specific operational way. Ultimatums require a responsive counterpart with authority to comply. The US may be delivering demands to an entity that cannot functionally respond. Enforcement then becomes the default outcome: if no one can authorise compliance, the deadline passes regardless of intent — making strike execution structurally more likely independent of US resolve.

Root Causes

Iran's velayat-e faqih system concentrates decision-making in a single individual and provides no constitutional mechanism for managing a temporarily incapacitated leader. The rapid wartime succession — conducted under bombardment, without the usual public legitimation process — created a structural gap between formal title and operational authority. The Assembly of Experts, which theoretically oversees the supreme leader, has no precedent for intervening in a wartime leadership question and no institutional history of asserting such authority.

Escalation

A functioning supreme leader is the only figure in Iran's system who can overrule the IRGC's escalatory preferences. Without visible authorisation, the Khatam al-Anbiya HQ — which issued the civilian infrastructure counter-threat (Event 1) — may be acting with autonomous authority it does not formally possess. Military commanders making escalatory decisions without political oversight is the precise pathway to accidental or unintended escalation that conflict-termination theory identifies as most dangerous.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    IRGC commanders may be making escalatory military decisions without supreme leader authorisation, including the Diego Garcia strike and the civilian infrastructure counter-threat.

    Immediate · Suggested
  • Consequence

    The 48-hour ultimatum mechanism is structurally compromised if no Iranian authority can formally receive, evaluate, and respond to it.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Risk

    Competing Iranian power centres — IRGC, Foreign Ministry, Assembly of Experts — may issue contradictory signals, making Iranian intentions unreadable to external actors.

    Short term · Suggested
  • Meaning

    The CIA and Mossad's active search for proof of life represents an intelligence priority shift from targeting to verification — confirming leadership uncertainty has become the dominant operational question.

    Short term · Reported
First Reported In

Update #44 · Trump: 48 hours to destroy Iran power grid

Axios· 22 Mar 2026
Read original
Causes and effects
This Event
CIA and Mossad hunt for Khamenei
Iran's supreme leader is the constitutional commander-in-chief and sole authority on war-and-peace decisions. His unverified status during active hostilities raises direct questions about who is authorising Iranian military operations — including the Diego Garcia missile strike and the counter-threat to Trump's power-grid ultimatum — and who possesses the authority to negotiate an end to the war.
Different Perspectives
Human rights monitors (Hengaw, Amnesty International, Iran HRM)
Human rights monitors (Hengaw, Amnesty International, Iran HRM)
Monitors documented a second death sentence for Zahra Tabari, 68, reported cemetery record deletions at Behesht-e Zahra, and a poll showing 81.5% of medical residents want to emigrate, against a background of 200+ confirmed executions since February. Iran's security courts operate at uninterrupted wartime tempo regardless of the diplomatic track.
Pakistan (mediator)
Pakistan (mediator)
Islamabad carried Trump's revised MOU demanding HEU destruction to Iranian negotiators, formally inheriting the role of sole active mediator after Oman's forced withdrawal. Pakistan lacks Oman's banking infrastructure for frozen-asset routing and carries its own regional stakes, making it a less structurally neutral broker.
Kuwait
Kuwait
Kuwait intercepted Iranian missiles and drones for a second time in days on 1 June, with air-raid sirens sounding nationwide, after invoking Article 51 self-defence on 28 May following the Ali Al Salem ballistic-missile strike. The repeated interceptions test whether Kuwait's domestic politics can sustain hosting US forces as a de facto co-belligerent.
China (PRC)
China (PRC)
Beijing sent scholars to Shangri-La rather than its defence minister and addressed Taiwan without mentioning Iran, maintaining bilateral energy corridor protection with Tehran while refusing diplomatic exposure at multilateral forums. Trump barred China as an HEU custodian on 27 May, removing Beijing from the deal architecture while China continues supplying DPI hardware that caps Iran's internet.
Lloyd's of London / war-risk underwriters
Lloyd's of London / war-risk underwriters
Lloyd's held its Hormuz war-risk designation at $10-14 million per voyage while Brent recovered to $93.91, maintaining the structural divergence from futures pricing that has persisted since late May. Underwriters require a UN Security Council resolution or government certification letter, not diplomatic optimism.
Gulf Cooperation Council states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar)
Gulf Cooperation Council states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar)
Five Gulf states wrote to the IMO on 21 May rejecting Iran's PGSA transit authority over international waters; Saudi Arabia and the UAE have not confirmed participation in the European Hormuz mission. The GCC is navigating between US security guarantees and exposure to Iranian fire, with no Gulf state formally co-belligerent except Kuwait.