Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Iran Conflict 2026
27MAY

Houthis threaten to close Bab al-Mandeb

2 min read
15:33UTC

A senior Houthi official described closing the Red Sea strait as one stage in a deliberate escalation ladder.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Dual-chokepoint pressure is now an active threat, not a theoretical scenario.

Mohammed Mansour, Houthi deputy information minister, told reporters: "We are conducting this battle in stages, and closing the Bab al-Mandeb strait is among our options." 1 Roughly 30% of Israeli imports and 6-7 million barrels per day of oil, approximately 7% of global supply, pass through the strait.

Mansour's language mirrors Iranian diplomatic formulations around Hormuz in the war's first week. The framing is a staged escalation ladder, not a single decision. Yahya Saree announced three formal red lines before the missile attack: US and Israeli use of the Red Sea for strikes, growing third-country participation, and escalating attacks on the "Axis of Resistance."

The IEA stated explicitly that its 400 million barrel emergency release "cannot substitute for the transit route itself" . Iran's Hormuz traffic control already routes vessels through a narrow corridor past Larak Island under IRGC escort; the Majlis toll bill would codify that system into domestic law. If both chokepoints tighten further, no reserve release addresses the shortfall.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Bab al-Mandeb is a narrow sea passage between Yemen and East Africa. Almost all the oil and cargo that moves between Asia and Europe passes through it. Around 6-7 million barrels of oil cross every day. A senior Houthi official said on 28 March that closing this strait is one of their options as the war continues. They already have missiles and drones on Yemen's coastline. Iran already controls the other major oil route, the Strait of Hormuz. If the Houthis block Bab al-Mandeb as well, there would be no alternative route for most of the world's oil. Emergency reserves would run out in weeks; there is no spare capacity to replace both routes at once.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The structural driver is the Houthis' geographic positioning. Yemen's Tihama coast overlooks Bab al-Mandeb's 29-kilometre narrows. Anti-ship missiles already deployed there can reach any vessel in the strait. Unlike Hormuz, there is no second passage: cargo cannot route around Bab al-Mandeb without circumnavigating Africa, adding 6,000 nautical miles and roughly 20 days per voyage.

The Houthis' leverage exists regardless of Iranian direction because the geography is permanent. Tehran did not create this chokepoint; it merely held the group back from using it.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    Dual chokepoint closure would exceed IEA emergency reserve capacity; no government has a contingency plan for simultaneous Hormuz restriction and Bab al-Mandeb closure.

  • Consequence

    Any ceasefire negotiation must now include Houthi participation or Bab al-Mandeb remains at risk regardless of what Iran agrees.

First Reported In

Update #50 · Houthis join; Iran holds two chokepoints

Axios· 28 Mar 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
Iran human rights monitors (Amnesty International, Iran HRM, Hengaw)
Iran human rights monitors (Amnesty International, Iran HRM, Hengaw)
Monitors documented 30 women held on capital moharebeh charges in a basement prison ward, Benyamin Naqdi's death sentence with a forced-confession broadcast, and 39 political executions since February. Iran's security courts have processed protest cases at uninterrupted wartime tempo regardless of the diplomatic track.
Lloyd's of London (war-risk underwriters)
Lloyd's of London (war-risk underwriters)
Lloyd's held its Hormuz war-risk designation at $10-14 million per voyage while Brent fell 19%, maintaining a structural divergence from futures pricing. Underwriters require a UN Security Council resolution or government certification letter, not diplomatic optimism, before de-listing the strait.
Oman (Sultan Haitham's government)
Oman (Sultan Haitham's government)
Muscat issued a mine alert in its own territorial waters while denying any Hormuz toll plan after US Treasury threatened sanctions. A suspected mine in Omani waters on the same weekend as US financial pressure forces Muscat to demonstrate sovereignty without appearing to choose sides.
China (PRC)
China (PRC)
Beijing sent scholars rather than its defence minister to Shangri-La for the second year running and addressed Taiwan and multilateralism without mentioning Iran. China maintains its bilateral energy corridor protection with Tehran while refusing the diplomatic exposure of a public position at multilateral forums.
Iran Supreme National Security Council
Iran Supreme National Security Council
The SNSC framed the unsigned MOU as a 10-point Iranian victory with enrichment already recognised, and the foreign ministry rejected Trump's nuclear conditions within hours. Tehran treats each unsigned day as validation that Iran has retained its stockpile without surrendering it.
Trump administration (CENTCOM/White House)
Trump administration (CENTCOM/White House)
Trump posted three non-negotiable public conditions while CENTCOM disabled a commercial ship and Hegseth threatened resumed strikes from Singapore. The administration treats the unsigned MOU as leverage to extract maximum Iranian concessions before any ceasefire instrument is committed to paper.