The basis between the Central European Gas Hub (CEGH) and TTF widened to roughly EUR 1.62/MWh on a day-ahead basis on 17 June, the ban-binding day, around four times the EUR 0.41 reading of 11 June , on CEGH exchange data 1. CEGH is Austria's virtual trading point at Baumgarten, historically tracking TTF closely; the basis is the premium Central European buyers pay over the Dutch benchmark. CEGH day-ahead settled EUR 42.742, the EUR 1.62 gap sitting above the same-day TTF print covered in event 2.
The widening reflected one-day supply uncertainty at the Kipi margin, the Greek-Turkish pipeline crossing through which non-EU molecules enter the grid, as the ban bound. It was small and physical, consistent with TurkStream's long-term contracts staying exempt to September 2027 , which limited the volume the regulation actually removed. The market had already isolated this premium as an uncorroborated bid that diverged from the flat prompt .
The premium did not hold. On 18 June, the Iran-relief session, CEGH eased to EUR 42.050 and the basis compressed back toward flat as TTF firmed 2. The widening was a single-session event, not a structural step-change, but it was tradeable: a desk that bought the CEGH-TTF basis into the binding date and sold it the next day captured the one mark the ban left on the curve. The lesson for a Central European basis trader is narrow: the regulation's physical bite was a one-day move at one hub, not a durable repricing.
