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European Tech Sovereignty
17MAY

EC opens DMA cloud probes against AWS and Azure

3 min read
14:28UTC

Brussels extended its gatekeeper enforcement from app stores into cloud infrastructure. Washington called it economic warfare.

TechnologyDeveloping
Key takeaway

DMA cloud probes target the switching costs that protect US hyperscalers' 70% European market share.

The European Commission opened cloud gatekeeper probes against Amazon and Microsoft in late 2025, extending Digital Markets Act enforcement to cloud infrastructure for the first time 1. The probes could mandate interoperability standards and data portability requirements, lowering switching costs for European enterprises running workloads on AWS and Azure.

The US administration treated the move as an escalation. A Section 301 investigation (a US trade law authorising retaliatory tariffs) explicitly named DMA cloud rules as "economic warfare" 2. Washington's response focused on the cloud probes, not the consumer-facing app store fines, a distinction that reveals which enforcement actions the US considers a genuine threat to its companies' market position.

European cloud providers already compete effectively on price. A Callista benchmark from February 2026 found Hetzner delivers 14.3 times the compute value per unit cost compared to AWS; Scaleway delivers 4.8 times the value per euro 3. The barrier to European cloud adoption is not cost. It is enterprise inertia, migration complexity, and gaps in managed services. DMA interoperability mandates would address the switching cost problem directly, though the timeline from probe to enforceable remedy is measured in years, not months.

EU-native cloud providers hold approximately 15% of the European cloud market against 70% for AWS, Azure, and Google combined 4. If the probes result in enforceable interoperability rules, the price advantage European providers already hold could translate into market share gains that pure competition has not delivered.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft Azure are the two largest cloud computing companies in the world. A cloud company provides the computing power, storage, and software services that businesses use to run their digital operations; everything from email to product websites to banking systems. The European Commission opened formal investigations into both companies in late 2025 under the Digital Markets Act, the same law used to fine Apple and Meta. The allegation is that AWS and Azure make it too difficult and expensive for businesses to switch to a different cloud provider, locking them in through technical complexity and proprietary data formats. The United States responded by opening a formal trade investigation, calling the EU rules 'economic warfare'. This is an escalating diplomatic and legal dispute about whether the EU can regulate how American technology companies operate within Europe; even if those companies are based in the US.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The cloud probe's root cause is the CLOUD Act problem: US law gives American intelligence and law enforcement agencies the right to demand data from US companies regardless of where it is stored.

For European enterprises handling sensitive data, this creates a structural incompatibility with EU data protection law. DMA interoperability mandates are partly a workaround: if switching costs are reduced, European enterprises can move to EU-based cloud providers that are not subject to CLOUD Act jurisdiction.

The Hetzner 14.3x and Scaleway 4.8x cost-performance differentials relative to AWS reflect genuine economic inefficiency in the cloud market, driven partly by AWS/Azure margin extraction from captive customers and partly by the genuine premium for AWS's additional services and global reach.

DMA interoperability mandates would make switching to European providers more viable by reducing the migration cost, which is currently estimated at 18-36 months of engineering effort for large enterprise workloads.

What could happen next?
  • Opportunity

    DMA cloud interoperability mandates could structurally reduce AWS/Azure switching costs, potentially shifting 5-15 percentage points of European cloud market share to EU-native providers over a 5-year horizon.

    Long term · 0.6
  • Risk

    US Section 301 investigation creates trade retaliation risk; tariffs on EU goods or withdrawal from bilateral digital trade agreements; that could force a political compromise limiting DMA cloud enforcement.

    Medium term · 0.65
  • Precedent

    A successful DMA cloud probe outcome establishing interoperability standards would create a replicable regulatory template for cloud market structure globally, potentially triggering similar proceedings in the UK, Japan, and Australia.

    Long term · 0.55
First Reported In

Update #1 · Europe's chip ambitions meet reality

CNBC· 13 Apr 2026
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Different Perspectives
OpenForum Europe / open-source community
OpenForum Europe / open-source community
The EUR 350m Sovereign Tech Fund has no Commission host, no budget line, and no commissioner's name attached six weeks after the April conference, while Germany is already paying maintainers to staff international standards bodies. The CRA open-source guidance resolves contributor liability but leaves the financial-donations grey area open with the 11 September reporting clock running.
ASML / Christophe Fouquet
ASML / Christophe Fouquet
ASML's Q2 guidance miss of roughly EUR 300m below consensus reflects DUV revenue compression set by US export controls, not European policy. Fouquet said 2026 guidance accommodates potential outcomes of ongoing US-China trade discussions; a bipartisan US bill to tighten DUV sales further would accelerate the cross-subsidy thinning Chips Act II's equity authority is designed to address.
Anne Le Henanff / French G7 Presidency
Anne Le Henanff / French G7 Presidency
Le Henanff chairs the 29 May Bercy ministerial two days after Brussels adopts the Tech Sovereignty Package, making the G7 communique the first international read of the Omnibus enforcement split and CAIDA's scope. France's Cloud au Centre doctrine is already operational via the Scaleway Health Data Hub contract.
German federal government
German federal government
Berlin operationalises sovereignty through procurement mandates (the ODF requirement and the Sovereign Tech Standards programme) rather than waiting for Commission legislation. The Bundeskartellamt has still not received the Cohere-Aleph Alpha merger filing, leaving Germany's flagship AI champion in structural limbo six weeks after the deal resolved.
US Trade Representative
US Trade Representative
The USTR Section 301 investigation into EU digital rules closes with a 24 July 2026 final determination. CAIDA's public-sector cloud restriction sits within the criteria that triggered the 2020 Section 301 action against France's digital services tax, and the US has not signalled whether the Thales-Google S3NS arrangement resolves CLOUD Act jurisdiction concerns.
CISPE / Valentina Mingorance
CISPE / Valentina Mingorance
CISPE shipped its own pass-fail sovereignty badge in April to establish an industry-auditable floor the Commission could adopt. Whether CAIDA inherits the CISPE binary or the multi-tier SEAL approach will determine whether certification is enforceable by public contracting authorities or requires Commission discretion.