EU High Representative Kaja Kallas confirmed at the G7 on 26 March that Russia's phased drone deliveries to Iran were due for completion by end of March.1 The shipments include upgraded Shahed-136 and Geran-2 variants with AI guidance and jet propulsion, combat-tested in Ukraine. The Kremlin denied all transfers.
The window closed on 30 March with no public confirmation of delivery completion. The absence of confirmation is not the same as absence of delivery. First shipments began in early March. If completed, Iran would hold a significantly upgraded drone capability: AI-guided variants that can adjust course in flight and jet-propelled models harder to intercept than the older propeller-driven Shaheds.
The Prince Sultan Air Base strike on 27 to 28 March used 29 drones. Whether any were Russian-supplied remains unknown. The strike wounded 12 US troops, damaged a KC-135 tanker and an E-3 AWACS, and demonstrated a level of precision and coordination that raised questions about the drones' provenance.
Moscow simultaneously denies drone transfers, issues nuclear risk warnings through Rosatom about Bushehr, and benefits from elevated oil prices driven by the conflict it is materially supporting. Kallas stated at the G7 that Russia was providing electronic warfare guidance and drone employment training alongside the hardware. If confirmed, Russian drones striking a base hosting 2,000 to 3,000 US personnel would cross from intelligence sharing to direct material participation in attacks on American forces.
