15JUN

Seven ships veer clear of the strait

1 min read

11:33UTC

Seven vessels have diverted away from the Bab al-Mandab since the tanker strikes, according to ship-tracking data, closing the southern reroute in practice.

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EconomicDeveloping

Key takeaway

With ships avoiding both straits, Gulf-to-Europe crude faces the long route round the Cape and a wider insurance exclusion.

Seven vessels have diverted away from the Bab al-Mandab since the 22 July tanker strikes, according to ship-tracking data ¹. the strait, the southern passage past Yemen through which Gulf oil reaches the Suez Canal, had absorbed traffic pushed off the Hormuz route as the northern chokepoint tightened.

The diversions turn a single attack into a routing problem for every owner weighing the southern passage. Hormuz weekly transits had already fallen 66% before this ; avoiding the Bab al-Mandab as well leaves the long haul around the Cape of Good Hope as the remaining way from the Gulf to Europe, adding roughly ten days and the fuel bill to match. War-risk underwriters, who have held a Hormuz exclusion for weeks, now have a fresh southern-strait case on which to widen it.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Ship-tracking data shows seven vessels have chosen to avoid the Bab al-Mandab strait entirely since the tanker strikes began, sailing the long way round Africa instead. It is a small number so far, but it shows some shipping companies have decided the risk of sailing through the strait is no longer worth it, whatever the extra cost of the longer route.

Sources:Al Jazeera·Axios

Mentions:Bab al-Mandeb →Houthis →Cape of Good Hope →Yemen →

First Reported In

Update #160 · Houthis hit Saudi tankers; Brent tops $100

Al Jazeera· 23 Jul 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Houthis fire on the Saudi tanker Encelia

The tanker strikes prompted seven vessels to divert away from the Bab al-Mandab.

Occurred 21 Jul 2026

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This Event

Seven ships veer clear of the strait

Rerouting away from the Bab al-Mandab as well as Hormuz leaves the long haul round the Cape as the remaining option and widens the war-risk exclusion.

Led to

Riyadh founds a 43-nation naval bloc

The Houthi Bab al-Mandeb embargo (ID:5218) is among the injuries the new Saudi-led naval coalition answers.

Occurred 30 Jul 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

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OFAC's amended FAQ 1224 gives a compliance desk its first published standard: full severance from Lukoil and a US-jurisdiction blocked account for sale proceeds. The conditions name neither ISAB nor Italy, so a Priolo Gargallo-linked bid answers a different question than a Neftochim Burgas or Petrotel Ploiesti one.

Managed-money funds on Brent Last Day

CFTC data for the week to 21 July showed managed money flipping 74,400 contracts to a net long of 15,665 against 1,410 short on the Brent Last Day contract, code 06765T. A fund that held that short through July has now covered it, and the spent short base raises the bar for the next leg higher.

Saudi crude exporters

Saudi-linked tanker transits through Bab el-Mandeb fell to about 7.5 a day after the 24 July underwriting withdrawal, pushing more barrels onto the longer route round the Cape or through the Yanbu terminal. Every diverted barrel ties up a ship for longer, and a fleet that turns slower charges more.

Tanker owners on the Bab el-Mandeb route

Lloyd's-market syndicates withdrew war-risk cover from Saudi-linked hulls on 24 July, leaving owners of that class of vessel to sail Bab el-Mandeb uninsured or not at all. Tanker transits on the route fell to roughly 7.5 a day, and cover, once withdrawn, does not return on a shipowner's timetable.

Eni

Eni's board approved second-quarter results on 29 July, swinging refining EBIT to a EUR0.08bn profit from a year-earlier loss even as group profit doubled, and named Red Sea freight cost as a cap on that improvement. A refiner absorbing higher shipping costs on Saudi-linked crude while its numbers improve treats the freight line as a drag, not a crisis.

Asian buyers (India, Japan, China, South Korea)

Asian refiners are absorbing 62% of Yanbu's 3.75m b/d flow, the bulk of Saudi Arabia's rerouted crude now clearing east rather than into the Atlantic basin. That destination split leaves Asian buyers more exposed to any single Yanbu-specific disruption than under the kingdom's normal multi-terminal export pattern.