11JUN

Brent slips to $98.38 on talks reports

1 min read

08:58UTC

Brent crude closed at $98.38 a barrel on 24 July, down 2.29 per cent, one day after crossing $100 for the first time since May. Reports of reviving mediation did the work.

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Key takeaway

Brent gave back its move above $100 within a day, on mediation reports rather than any signed agreement.

Brent Crude, the global benchmark for seaborne oil, settled at $98.38 a barrel on 24 July, down 2.29 per cent, as reports circulated that mediation between Washington and Tehran was reviving ¹. The fall came a day after the contract crossed $100 for the first time since May .

Donald Trump spent 24 July telling Axios he was weighing a larger operation, and the price still fell. Traders priced the pause rather than the promise: a quiet night over Iranian airspace and mediation chatter around the Iraqi channel moved the benchmark down more than two per cent in a session, while the rhetoric moved it not at all.

Roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne crude passes through the Strait of Hormuz, so the conflict premium embedded in that $98.38 is a function of shipping risk rather than of barrels lost to date. The 24 July session showed that premium responding to diplomatic signals, which matters to refiners hedging cargoes and to Gulf producers setting budgets against a number that can move two dollars on a report neither government has confirmed.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Brent crude is the main global price used for oil bought and sold by sea, and it affects what people pay for petrol and heating. It dropped by about 2 per cent on 24 July, to $98.38 a barrel, after reports suggested that US and Iranian mediators were talking again. The day before, the price had gone above $100 for the first time since May. Oil traders tend to react quickly to any hint of peace talks in this war, even before anyone confirms whether the talks are real, so prices can jump around a lot on rumour alone.

What could happen next?

Consequence
A one-day price fall on mediation rumours, rather than a confirmed diplomatic breakthrough, leaves Brent vulnerable to snapping back if the reports prove unfounded.

Sources:Trading Economics

Mentions:Brent Crude →Axios →Tehran →Washington →Strait of Hormuz →Donald Trump →

First Reported In

Update #161 · Bahrain and Kuwait struck Iran, WSJ reports

Trading Economics· 25 Jul 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

CENTCOM pauses as Trump warns of more

Brent fell on the night CENTCOM did not fly rather than on Trump's rhetoric.

Occurred 24 Jul 2026

Read story →

Brent tops $100 as the reroute closes

Brent's fall to $98.38 reverses part of the record climb above $100 the day before.

Occurred 22 Jul 2026

Read story →

This Event

Brent slips to $98.38 on talks reports

The benchmark gave back its gain on the day American strikes paused, which puts a price on the difference between a quiet night and a presidential threat.

Different Perspectives

US money managers (CFTC-tracked)

US money managers had trimmed WTI net long positioning into July's rally, doubting the Hormuz premium would hold without freight or war-risk confirmation, and the crude stock build reported for the week to 17 July gives that scepticism a fundamentals basis. The 25 July CFTC data will show whether Brent's move above $100 changed their calculus.

Asian distillate buyers (Singapore)

Singapore's distillate holders kept retaining middle-distillate barrels as the East-West arbitrage window narrowed further this week, a pattern that sharpened as Fujairah light distillates hit a record low. Cargoes are being held rather than released west into the tightening Mediterranean market.

Bulgaria

Bulgaria secured the removal of Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov and Patriarch Kirill from the 21st package, with President Rumen Radev calling a personal listing 'shooting ourselves in the foot'. Sofia is protecting its position in Lukoil's EUR 3bn compensation claim over the 2023 Neftohim Burgas nationalisation.

Russia

Russia loses the roughly $14 a barrel of legal headroom the price-cap formula would have released toward $58, even as Urals continues trading below Moscow's $59 budget floor. The shadow-fleet insurance workaround that lets sanctioned crude clear above $44 in practice remains untouched by the freeze itself.

European Union

The EU adopted its 21st sanctions package on 23 July, freezing the $44 Russia oil cap for 12 months rather than letting the formula drift it toward $58, and listed shadow-fleet support vessels for the first time. The package cleared only after three failed Coreper votes.

Marine war-risk underwriters (Lloyd's-linked syndicates)

War-risk syndicates lifted southern Red Sea hull premiums 150% to about 0.75% of hull value after the 20 July blockade declaration, still a seventh of the roughly 5% Hormuz band. Underwriters reset on realised loss, not declared threat, so the 23 July Encelia and Layla strikes set up the next re-mark.