23JUL

ECIPE finds cloud tenders favour locals

4 min read

19:31UTC

A Brussels think tank counted 8,725 public cloud lots across nine member states and found about 97% went to domestically registered providers.

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EconomicDeveloping

Key takeaway

Sovereign cloud tenders in nine states went almost entirely to home providers, ECIPE found.

Public buyers in nine member states gave about 97% of their awarded cloud lots to domestically registered providers between 2018 and 2025, the European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE), a Brussels free-trade think tank, found in a study published in October⁠¹. ECIPE counted 8,725 awarded lots on Tenders Electronic Daily, the EU procurement journal, in France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, Italy, Denmark, Poland and Estonia. Counting the pan-European GEANT research-network framework, the domestic share is 88.9%; judged by the nationality of the ultimate parent company, it falls by 10 to 15 points.

Every lot framed in post-2019 sovereignty language, a small category in ECIPE's data, went to a home supplier. That framing covers national cloud-security labels such as France's SecNumCloud and Germany's C5, the GAIA-X data-sharing standard and clauses keeping data in the country. Under it ECIPE puts the sole-bidder rate at 46%, against 28% where no sovereignty language appears, though that figure rests on only 22 notices with bidder data. US platforms won no lot directly; their local subsidiaries won 16, or 0.2% of the total. At least 13 of 238 sovereignty-flagged awards name a US hyperscaler platform (one of the giant US cloud providers) underneath the winning provider. In ECIPE's words, "sovereignty attaches to the nationality of the operator".

Poland's proposed sovereignty test for state technology contracts would add one more national scoring rule to the same tenders. ECIPE aims its recommendations at four articles of the Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA), the Commission's June sovereign-cloud proposal.

European Digital Rights (EDRi), a digital-rights network, attacked CADA from the opposite flank on 8 October⁠². Citing CBRE, EDRi puts EU data-centre power consumption at about 13 GW by the end of 2026, and reckons CADA's aim of tripling capacity by 2035 would need about 39 GW. It argues the new sites would still rest on US investors and companies. ECIPE wants contracts opened across borders; EDRi wants a decentralised, open-source tech ecosystem run in the public interest.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Cloud computing means renting computer power and storage from big data centres instead of running your own servers. Governments buy a lot of it. Many EU governments now say they want sovereign cloud, meaning services that stay under European control. ECIPE, a Brussels think tank that favours open trade, studied cloud contracts in nine EU countries and found that nearly all went to home-country firms. EDRi, a network of digital-rights groups, criticised the EU's planned cloud law from a different angle. It says building far more data centres would use huge amounts of electricity and still depend on American companies.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Public cloud buying is decentralised to thousands of national, regional and city contracting bodies. Each judges sovereignty by what it can check easily, and the registered address of a supplier is the simplest test to apply.

National security labels such as France's SecNumCloud and Germany's C5 were written by national agencies for national buyers. A provider certified in one country often has to recertify in another, which narrows the field before a tender opens.

US platforms reach the public sector through local resellers and subsidiaries, so a domestic winner can still deliver a US stack. Procurement rules that look at the contracting party never see the layer beneath it.

What could happen next?

Consequence
ECIPE's figures give opponents of nationality-based scoring evidence to amend four articles of the cloud bill in Parliament.
Short term · Suggested
Risk
Sovereignty clauses may keep raising the share of single-bidder tenders as more buyers adopt them.
Medium term · Suggested
Meaning
Critics from free-trade and digital-rights camps now agree that sovereign labels hide US technology, while disagreeing on the cure.
Short term · Assessed

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources from United Kingdom

United Kingdom

Primary parallel: The 2009 Defence Procurement Directive aimed to open military buying across EU borders. Governments kept most contracts at home by citing security exemptions, the same mechanism ECIPE finds in cloud tenders that invoke sovereignty.

Counter-parallel: When the Commission bought for itself, the result crossed borders. Its €180m sovereign cloud framework in April went to consortia including Luxembourg's Post Telecom with OVHcloud and CleverCloud, and Schwarz Group's StackIT.

ECIPE's figures point first to concentration. Sole-bidder tenders generally deliver weaker price competition, and ECIPE finds them markedly more common under sovereignty framing, although on only 22 notices with bidder data.

Structurally, the market is growing fast while European providers stay small: one forecast puts European sovereign cloud spending rising from about $7bn in 2025 to $23bn by 2027, with EU-native providers holding about 15% of the wider cloud market. EDRi's power figures, about 13 GW now and about 39 GW if capacity triples by 2035, show the grid cost of that growth.

Consensus view: ECIPE's free-trade economists conclude that sovereignty clauses work as a nationality filter: they shrink competition (a 46% sole-bidder rate against 28% without such wording) while at least 13 of 238 flagged awards still run on a US hyperscaler platform. Its fix is to open public cloud tenders across EU borders.

Counter-view: European Digital Rights, arguing from the digital-rights left, accepts the dependency diagnosis but rejects the market cure. It says scaling data centres under the Cloud and AI Development Act would lock in US investors and power-hungry sites, and wants a decentralised, open-source estate run in the public interest.

Key tension: Whether the problem is too little competition between European providers or too much reliance on US technology underneath them; the two critiques prescribe opposite remedies.

First Reported In

Update #17 · EU questions AI labs over loss of control

ECIPE· 22 Oct 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

Caused by

Poland proposes model-weights test for state contracts

Poland's proposed sovereignty test would add a national scoring rule to the tenders ECIPE counted.

Occurred 20 Jul 2026

Read story →

This Event

ECIPE finds cloud tenders favour locals

Sovereignty clauses in public cloud buying split the single market along operator nationality while some winners still run on US platforms.

Different Perspectives

Cross-border power traders

The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.

EDF

River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.

Gasunie

TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.

German gas-fired generators

Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.

European Commission (DG Energy)

Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.

Spain's LNG terminal operators

Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.