The United States informed Lebanon that the November 2024 ceasefire is formally over and that Washington will not intervene to prevent Israeli military operations unless Beirut designates Hezbollah a terrorist organisation. The ultimatum's terms are binary: comply, or the US treats Hezbollah and the Lebanese state as indistinguishable.
Lebanon's government has moved further against Hezbollah than any of its predecessors. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declared an immediate ban on all Hezbollah security and military activities and publicly called Hezbollah's attack on Israel "irresponsible and suspicious" — breaking with decades of deliberate ambiguity. The Justice Minister ordered the public prosecutor to arrest those who fired at Israel. These are unprecedented steps in Lebanon's post-civil-war politics, where successive governments maintained the fiction that Hezbollah's arsenal was a legitimate extension of national defence.
The question is whether Lebanon's security forces can execute what its politicians have ordered. The Lebanese Armed Forces have approximately 80,000 active personnel. Hezbollah's fighting strength is estimated at 30,000 to 50,000, with years of combat experience in Syria, an independent command structure, and an arsenal that includes precision-guided missiles. When Hezbollah last faced a domestic challenge — in May 2008, after the Siniora government attempted to shut down its telecommunications network — the group seized West Beirut in hours. The Lebanese Army stood aside.
The American demand arrives as Israel escalates. Israel declared "no immunity" for Hezbollah political figures and civilian supporters , named Secretary-General Naim Qassem as an elimination target , and mobilised reservists for an offensive campaign . Mohammad Raad, head of Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc, was reportedly killed in strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs that left 31 dead and 149 wounded .
Washington is asking Beirut to designate as a terrorist organisation a group that Israel is simultaneously attempting to destroy — while offering no security guarantees for a Lebanese state that would, by complying, make itself Hezbollah's primary domestic adversary.
The 1989 Taif Agreement that ended Lebanon's civil war required all militias to disarm. Every group did except Hezbollah, which maintained its arsenal under the justification of resistance against Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon. Thirty-seven years later, the US is demanding Lebanon enforce a disarmament the international Community brokered but never implemented — with no new resources, no security umbrella, and a military imbalance that favours the group it is being told to confront.
