Russia's government announced on 29 August that its producer-binding ban on diesel, marine fuel and kerosene exports would run to 30 September. Alexander Novak told reporters on 4 September that exports would reopen gradually as reserves are rebuilt, and named no date.
The study Novak ordered on 15 July into cutting the mandatory diesel exchange-sale quota had produced no published decision by 13 September, eight weeks later. So the emergency ban he announced in early July keeps doing the work a quota decision was meant to do. Refiners can plan against a quota. They cannot plan against a ban renewed month by month.
Novak has now spent ten weeks managing the shortage with an instrument designed to last days. Russian refiners face the winter run decision without knowing whether export markets reopen on 1 October or a fourth month of the ban lands instead.
