The Stargate US programme was unveiled in January 2025 at $500 billion of headline capex, of which only the first $100 billion was described as committed.1 Abilene, Texas is the only Stargate US site partially operational, at roughly 1.2 GW against a nominal 10 GW US programme. SemiAnalysis, the semiconductor and infrastructure research firm, has questioned whether SoftBank can finance the full commitment. Latitude Media estimates that 30% to 50% of large data centres scheduled for 2026 completion will slip, against a 2025 delay rate of 26%, with only 5 GW of the planned 16 GW physically under construction.2
Stargate is the OpenAI-Oracle-SoftBank joint vehicle unveiled at a White House event in January 2025, structured as a holding company that channels SoftBank-led equity into US data centre campuses contracted to OpenAI workloads. The $500 billion total is the four-year programme headline; the $100 billion first-phase figure is the only number disclosed alongside actual commitment letters. Abilene, Texas hosts the Crusoe-built campus that is the programme's flagship and to date its only partially operational site. Roughly 1.2 GW of the planned 10 GW US programme is energised, with the remainder still in early-stage permitting or unannounced.
SemiAnalysis is the Dylan Patel-led research outfit whose hyperscaler capex modelling is closely tracked by chip and infrastructure investors. Its question on SoftBank's financing capacity is grounded: SoftBank's Vision Fund balance sheet is concentrated in Arm Holdings, with limited liquid capacity to fund a multi-year $100 billion direct-equity commitment without partner co-investment. Latitude Media is the energy-and-data-centre trade publication whose 2025 delay-rate baseline of 26% is the sector's most-cited figure. Its 30-50% forecast for 2026 implies that roughly two-thirds of announced capacity for the year is either still on paper or already delayed.
Latitude Media's 5-of-16 GW figure is the year's cleanest single metric for the headline-versus-ground gap. The 2025 hyperscaler capex of $400 billion is real and is showing up in 10-Q filings, but commissioned megawatts in 2026 will run well below the implied build rate. Synergy Research Group's Q1 2026 hyperscale figures, due mid-May, are the next confirmation point. Whether the gap closes depends on whether the gas-turbine deliveries arrive on time, whether transmission upgrades clear in PJM and ERCOT, and whether OpenAI's pauses at sites like Cobalt Park spread or stay isolated. SoftBank's Q1 2026 disclosures and the Abilene commissioning timeline are the two specific signals to watch.
