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Autonomous Systems: Land & Sea
24JUN

Oil Retreats From Peak Amid Ceasefire Speculation

1 min read
16:13UTC

Brent crude eased to $110.47 from its $116 peak, but remains 64% above pre-war levels with the strait operating at a fraction of normal capacity.

TechnologyAssessed
Key takeaway

Markets priced in ceasefire hope; the supply disruption remains.

Brent Crude traded at $110.47 per barrel, retreating from the $116 peak on 28 March. The pullback may reflect ceasefire hopes from the Islamabad talks, though the fundamental supply picture has not changed. the strait of Hormuz remains over 90% below pre-war transit volumes at 53 weekly transits against a baseline of 966.

The price remains roughly 64% above pre-war levels of $67.41 per barrel. Analysts had warned that $150 per barrel was possible if the strait stays closed another month. The Islamabad Accord's immediate-reopening provision is the first diplomatic instrument that directly addresses the oil price mechanism, which may explain why markets have responded to the framework's existence even before Iran has accepted it.

The modest retreat should not be mistaken for normalisation. The IEA, IMF, and World Bank jointly described this as one of the largest supply shortages in energy market history. That assessment has not changed.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Oil prices dropped slightly from their highest point of the war, possibly because traders think the new Pakistan peace plan might work. But prices are still about 64% higher than before the war started. the strait that most of the world's oil passes through is still barely open. If the peace plan fails, prices could rise sharply again.

What could happen next?
  • Markets pricing in ceasefire probability; failure would trigger sharp reversal

First Reported In

Update #60 · Pakistan's Ceasefire Plan Fills the Vacuum

CNBC· 6 Apr 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
This Event
Oil Retreats From Peak Amid Ceasefire Speculation
The price retreat, while modest, is the first sustained pullback since the war began. It suggests markets are pricing in a non-zero probability of ceasefire from the Islamabad talks. However, with Hormuz at roughly 5% of pre-war transit volumes, the fundamental supply disruption remains unchanged.
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Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.