Brent fell below $95 in the 28-29 May window on reports of a US-Iran ceasefire extension awaiting Trump's sign-off, with WTI near $92-93 and the Brent-WTI spread compressed to roughly $2-31. The $14 move itself was the 26 May story; the new element is that the screen kept leaking on ceasefire headlines while OFAC loaded GL 131F and the Iran SDN action underneath it on the same day.
The flat price and the light-sweet spread are unwinding the Hormuz risk premium. The product cracks are not, because they price barrels that are physically short rather than a war-risk option. The two are now reading different markets: the screen prices ceasefire optionality, the cracks price the inventory deficit, and a desk can be long the crack and short the flat-price premium without contradiction.
Saudi Arabia is expected to cut the July Arab Light OSP to Asia for a second straight month, per Reuters, with the official sheet due circa 1-5 June and not yet published2. If the Asia cut lands, Asian refiners keep their Russian and Iranian discounts and more Gulf sour competes into Europe, which would press Med sour differentials and the Urals discount lower. Aramco has not published, so the cut belongs in the watch column as an expectation, not a print.
