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AI: Jobs, Power & Money
27JUL

India IT grows 140,000 as US firms cut

3 min read
10:02UTC

NASSCOM reported India's IT sector grew net by 140,000 to 5.9 million in fiscal 2026, with the growth concentrated in in-house offshore offices run by the same US firms cutting at home.

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EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

India's IT sector grew to 5.9 million as US firms moved cut roles into their own offshore offices.

NASSCOM, India's IT industry body, reported the sector grew by about 140,000 workers to 5.9 million in fiscal 2026, even as the top five outsourcers cut a combined 6,981 jobs 1. The growth sits in GCCs (Global Capability Centres, in-house offshore offices), run by firms including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Apple and Walmart, the same companies executing US cuts.

NASSCOM's net figure makes the magnitude concrete for the first time, building on its earlier finding that GCC expansion sits outside US disclosure regimes . The same firms appear on both sides of the ledger: in the US-cut data and in the NASSCOM GCC-growth data. A role cut in Texas and recreated in Bengaluru shows up in US WARN filings as a loss and in no US instrument as a transfer.

This is a third measurement gap stacked on the others. Declared layoffs miss hires never made; JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) misses the same; neither tracks hires made offshore. Entry-level Indian IT hiring fell 20-25% even as the sector grew, so the channel rewards mid-career transfers and closes the graduate door at both ends, in Texas and in Bengaluru alike.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Big US companies like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Apple, and Walmart have been cutting jobs in the US while opening larger offices in India. These Indian offices are not run by outsourcing firms like Tata or Infosys; the US companies run them directly, using their own employees. India's IT sector grew by 140,000 jobs to 5.9 million in the year to March 2026. At first glance that sounds positive. But the growth happened at in-house US company offices, while traditional Indian IT firms that previously provided outsourced services cut nearly 7,000 jobs. Graduate hiring fell 20-25% even as the total workforce grew. Indian graduates entering the IT sector normally found jobs at outsourcers. Those outsourcer roles are shrinking, and the new GCC roles require experienced specialists rather than new entrants. None of these transfers appear in US job-loss statistics, because the moves happen between branches of the same company.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

GCCs trigger no US WARN Act filing because the transfer is between affiliates of the same company, not a mass layoff at a single US site. They do not enter Stanford's JOLTS analysis because JOLTS measures domestic job openings and separations. WARN Act, JOLTS, and BLS payroll surveys each fail to capture the channel for separate structural reasons.

Entry-level hiring fell 20-25% even as the sector grew because GCCs require mid-career specialists, not graduates. India's IT sector previously absorbed roughly 300,000 graduates a year through mass fresher hiring at outsourcers. That model is being replaced by one that absorbs only workers with five-plus years of enterprise experience.

Escalation

NASSCOM's FY2026 data makes the GCC channel concrete with a named magnitude. The next escalation point is whether US congressional staff or the Bureau of Labor Statistics develop a GCC-tracking methodology that makes the channel visible in domestic statistics.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    India's 20-25% drop in entry-level IT hiring despite net sector growth closes the graduate employment pipeline that has absorbed 300,000 Indian engineering graduates annually for two decades.

    Medium term · Assessed
  • Risk

    GCC transfers are invisible to every existing US AI displacement metric (WARN Act, JOLTS, BLS payroll), meaning official US job-loss counts structurally understate the offshore transfer component.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Opportunity

    NASSCOM's decision to publish GCC growth data separately from traditional outsourcer data creates a statistical foundation for a bilateral US-India transfer disclosure framework.

    Long term · Suggested
Sources:ONS (Office for National Statistics)
Mentions:NASSCOM →Global Capability Centre →JPMorgan Chase →Goldman Sachs →Apple →Walmart →Bruegel →Wipro →India →Infosys →Texas →Accenture →China →Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey →Bengaluru →
First Reported In

Update #11 · Markets now reward the cut, punish the freeze

ONS (Office for National Statistics)· 1 Jun 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
India's GCCs absorb the offshored work
NASSCOM's May FY2026 data makes the offshore GCC magnitude concrete, building on the earlier finding that GCC expansion sits outside US disclosure regimes.
Occurred 15 May 2026
Read story →
This Event
India IT grows 140,000 as US firms cut
The offshore Global Capability Centre channel is a measurement gap no US labour instrument can see, recording cuts as losses and never as transfers.
Led to
Wipro hired into its own hiring freeze
The GCC-driven net growth in Indian IT employment contextualises Wipro's net headcount addition against its own hiring pledge.
Occurred 16 Jul 2026
Read story →
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