Gas Infrastructure Europe's AGSI+ platform recorded EU aggregate gas storage at 37.0% on Friday 22 May, up 0.7 percentage points on the 17 May print of 36.3% and 4.0 pp on the 33.06% reading on Saturday 2 May1. The seven-day injection pace sits at 0.17 pp/day against the 0.53 pp/day required to reach 80% by 1 November, leaving an 18.0 pp deficit versus the five-year seasonal norm.
Germany's carbon stack, not cargo procurement, drives the deficit. With TTF at €47/MWh and EUA allowances at €75/t, a 0.52 t CO2 per MWh CCGT plant carries roughly €39 of carbon plus €90 of gas, putting marginal cost near €129/MWh against German day-ahead clearing at €106.35/MWh on Thursday 21 May. Clean spark spread inverted, German operators have no commercial trade that lifts summer molecules into caverns at the prevailing near-flat summer-winter strip; the curve does not fund carry. Bruegel's three-scenario refill model priced the bill at €26-44bn across the €45-75 TTF band, with €26bn operative at €45/MWh; that range is now a cost estimate for a landing below 80%, not at it.
Against that, France carries the EU aggregate; storage capacity sits 100% booked under regulated mandatory contracts at zero reserve cost, supplying the EU-aggregate cover that masks the German gap on the headline; 37.0% is materially above the April trough of 28.92% and Berlin's Bundesnetzagentur is still calling supply stable with its early-warning gas stage active since July 2025. The harder read is that Germany abolished its storage levy on 1 January 2026 with no replacement instrument, stripping the cost-recovery mechanism that underwrote injection economics through three winters between TTF prints of €25 and €70/MWh. A second formal cut to the 80% target needs Council unanimity not currently available, leaving silent acceptance of a sub-80% landing as the operative posture into the 11 June joint ACER/EC workshop.
