Common Questions

Who is the Welsh First Minister?: Eluned Morgan, who became First Minister in August 2024 after Mark Drakeford retired.
How many Senedd seats does Welsh Labour currently hold?: Welsh Labour holds 29 Senedd seats in the outgoing 60-seat chamber.
What is Welsh Labour projected to win in the 2026 Senedd election?: YouGov's MRP projects Welsh Labour will win approximately 12 seats — a 59 per cent collapse from its current 29.
Has Welsh Labour ever lost power in Wales?: No. Welsh Labour has governed Wales in some form since devolution began in 1999. A 2026 loss to Plaid Cymru would be the first change of government in Cardiff Bay.
Why is Eluned Morgan at risk of losing her seat?: Under the new closed-list PR system, Morgan sits at the top of the Labour list in Ceredigion Penfro but Labour's projected 18% vote share is insufficient to reach the seat threshold in that constituency.

Background

Welsh Labour has governed Wales continuously since devolution in 1999, making it the longest-serving devolved government in the UK. Under First Minister Eluned Morgan — who took office in August 2024 following Mark Drakeford's retirement — the party enters the 2026 Senedd election facing its worst-ever projected result. YouGov's MRP puts Welsh Labour on ~12 seats, down from its current 29, a 59 per cent collapse in representation. Morgan herself is projected to fall below the entry threshold in her own constituency of Ceredigion Penfro.

Welsh Labour has dominated Welsh politics through coalitions and minority administrations, but the new closed-list PR system eliminates the tactical advantages it held under the previous mixed-member system. With Plaid Cymru projected to win 43 seats and potentially govern Wales for the first time, Welsh Labour faces the prospect of being pushed into third place behind both Plaid and Reform UK. The party's 18 per cent PollCheck average in April 2026 represents a dramatic fall from its traditional 30-40 per cent range.

Welsh Labour's projected collapse is not merely a party misfortune; it is a potential turning point in the devolution settlement itself. A government that has held Wales continuously since 1999 losing power to a nationalist party on a platform that includes an independence referendum would shift the entire framing of Welsh politics, with consequences that extend from public service delivery to the constitutional relationship between Cardiff Bay and Westminster.

How the World Sees Them

Wales

Welsh Labour's projected fall from 29 to 12 seats would end 27 years of Welsh Labour dominance and force the party into opposition for the first time since devolution.

Westminster

A Welsh Labour collapse would weaken Keir Starmer's political position and raise questions about Labour's electoral strategy in devolved nations.