US Gulf-China

The US Gulf-China route (Baltic Exchange designation TD22) is the rate assessed for loading Very Large Crude Carriers at the US Gulf Coast and discharging in China. The Baltic Exchange publishes it alongside the Middle East Gulf-China route (TD3C) and the West Africa-China route, forming the three pillars of the VLCC benchmark matrix. Traders and freight-derivatives desks use the TD22 rate as The Atlantic-basin reference: when the MEG-China spread over TD22 widens, it signals that the market is pricing a structural premium on Persian Gulf liftings relative to Atlantic alternatives.

The route became a key forensic tool during the Hormuz closure of 2026. On 16 June 2026, the spot TD22 rate was assessed at $106,051/day against a TD3C spot of $412,888/day. The gap is large in absolute terms, but the forward freight market tells a sharper story: the 4Q26 MEG-China forward freight agreement was quoted at $181,163/day against $86,314/day for US Gulf-China, a roughly 2x premium that the market is pricing as a sustained feature of the second half of 2026. Because the 4Q26 FFA represents where buyers and sellers are willing to lock in cover, not a hypothetical spot assessment, the 2x differential is the freight market's stated view that Hormuz will not reopen cleanly in the near term. Brent Crude at sub-$80 on 18 June has front-run diplomatic resolution; the VLCC forward curve has not.

The TD22 comparator matters for European oil markets because Atlantic-basin crude (US, West Africa, North Sea) prices into North-West Europe directly on this freight curve. When MEG freight premiums compress toward TD22 levels, it typically signals perceived supply normalisation through Hormuz. The current 2x forward spread is the freight market's dissent from the diplomatic optimism already priced in flat crude.