Iraq

Iraq sits at the centre of the Iran-US conflict without being a belligerent. It hosts roughly 2,500 US troops at bases including Al-Asad and Erbil while Iranian-backed groups — principally Kataib Hezbollah and the broader Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) — operate freely on its soil. Iraqi airspace was closed when the conflict erupted. Iraq declared Force majeure on all foreign-operated oilfields in March 2026, unable to export through the blocked Strait of Hormuz.

The Iraqi state emerged from the 2003 US-led invasion in a condition of deep sectarian fracture. The PMF, formally integrated into the Iraqi security forces after the 2014 ISIS campaign, numbers an estimated 100,000 fighters and maintains close ties to Tehran. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani governs a country of 43 million people that produces roughly 4.5 million barrels of oil per day, almost entirely land-locked from global markets when the Hormuz route is closed. Iraq fought Iran in a ruinous eight-year war from 1980 to 1988.

The 2026 conflict has sharpened Iraq's sovereignty paradox. Baghdad cannot expel the PMF without civil war, cannot expel US forces without a security vacuum, and cannot remain neutral when both sets of armed actors launch operations from its territory. Iraqi militias claimed, without evidence, responsibility for the KC-135 crash that killed six US personnel near Turaibil. The government publicly condemned the claim. Iraq's position as a reluctant proxy battleground is unlikely to resolve until the wider Iran-US confrontation does.