Friedrich Merz

Friedrich Merz became German Chancellor in early 2025, leading the CDU/CSU-led Coalition after years as the party's leading opposition figure. His chancellorship has been defined from the outset by Europe's deepest security crisis since the Cold War. When he visited the White House on 3 March 2026, he delivered two messages: that Europe would not accept any Ukraine deal concluded without European participation, and that Ukrainian territorial integrity must be preserved. His leverage is structural rather than military: Germany cannot deploy combat forces without Bundestag approval, so his influence lies in controlling EU sanctions relief, reconstruction funding, and European troop guarantee arrangements.

On sanctions, Merz has held a firm line. When the US Treasury issued 30-day waivers on Russian oil sanctions in March 2026, permitting purchases of roughly 124 million barrels at sea, Merz responded directly: "Easing sanctions now, for whatever reason, is wrong." Germany contributes significant financial and material support to Ukraine under his government, and Merz has backed EU-level rearmament efforts including the SAFE fund.

His challenge is managing a transatlantic relationship that has fundamentally shifted. The US-Russia-Ukraine trilateral format excludes the EU's 27 member states despite Europe funding more of Ukraine's war effort than the United States. Merz must extract European influence from that exclusion without fracturing The Atlantic alliance or provoking domestic backlash from German voters tired of open-ended Ukraine expenditure.