Birmingham
England's second city; issued Section 114 in 2023; Labour-held but facing minus-30 projected swing to Reform.
Last refreshed: 15 July 2026 · Appears in 2 active topics
Can Labour hold Birmingham council after a projected 30-point vote collapse?
Timeline for Birmingham
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Is Birmingham projected to stay Labour after the 2026 local elections?
What is the status of Birmingham City Council's Section 114?
Background
Birmingham is England's second city with a population of approximately 1.1 million and the largest local authority in Europe by population. On the eve of the 7 May 2026 local elections, it is one of only two West Midlands councils that Labour is projected to retain, alongside Coventry — in YouGov's West Midlands MRP, Labour's vote share in Birmingham is projected to fall by 30 points, the joint-equal largest collapse in the region.
Birmingham City Council issued a Section 114 notice in 2023 — the largest local government insolvency in UK history — after equal pay liabilities reached approximately £760 million. The city has been operating under Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government commissioners since that notice, with severely constrained spending and asset sales under way. The council's financial collapse became a national symbol of the local government funding crisis.
The juxtaposition of Labour's historic hold on Birmingham's council and the scale of projected vote loss makes the city a national bellwether: if Labour retains Birmingham despite a 30-point swing, the seat mathematics of council control matter more than vote share. If it does not, the result signals a structural collapse of Labour's urban Coalition.