Adi Imsirovic
Oxford oil market analyst whose $200 Brent forecast is reshaping war-risk economics.
Last refreshed: 30 March 2026
Has any credible oil analyst ever been right about $200 per barrel?
Latest on Adi Imsirovic
- Who is Adi Imsirovic?
- Adi Imsirovic is a Senior Research Fellow at the University of Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and a former Gazprom Marketing and Trading executive. He is a leading authority on physical crude pricing benchmarks, particularly Brent Crude.Source: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
- What did Adi Imsirovic say about oil prices during the Iran war?
- In March 2026, as Brent Crude touched $119 per barrel, Imsirovic called $200 oil "perfectly possible" and described it as a "major handbrake to world economy" if the Strait of Hormuz closure persisted.Source: Lowdown iran-conflict-2026
- How does Adi Imsirovic compare to Ann-Louise Hittle and Vandana Hari on oil forecasts?
- All three issued extreme March 2026 forecasts: Hittle (Wood Mackenzie) called $150 soon with $200 possible; Hari (Vanda Insights) said $200 was in sight; Imsirovic (Oxford) called it "perfectly possible." His benchmark credentials distinguish his view.Source: Lowdown iran-conflict-2026
- What would $200 oil mean for the global economy?
- Oxford Economics assessed that Brent at $140 per barrel triggers a mild global recession of negative 0.7% GDP growth. Imsirovic's $200 forecast implies a significantly deeper shock to economic output worldwide.Source: Oxford Economics
- What is Adi Imsirovic's background in oil benchmarks?
- Imsirovic specialises in physical crude pricing benchmarks and oil derivative contracts. His former role at Gazprom Marketing and Trading gave him direct experience in Brent-linked contract structuring, underpinning his authority on forward price dynamics.Source: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Background
Adi Imsirovic is a Senior Research Fellow at the University of Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and a former executive at Gazprom Marketing and Trading. He spent decades structuring oil derivative contracts and is regarded as one of the foremost authorities on physical crude pricing benchmarks, particularly Brent Crude.
As the Iran-Israel-US conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026, Imsirovic called $200 per barrel "perfectly possible" and "a major handbrake to world economy," the most striking forecast among named analysts as Brent touched $119 intraday . His assessment placed him alongside Ann-Louise Hittle and Vandana Hari in a cohort projecting a historic price breach .
The tension in Imsirovic's position is credibility versus catastrophism: his track record in benchmark design lends weight to the forecast, but a sustained $200 price would, per Oxford Economics, tip the global economy into recession , making the forecast as much a political artefact as a market signal.
