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Welsh leaders debates expose immigration paradox

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10:09UTC

ITV Cymru Wales hosted the first Senedd leaders debate on Sunday 19 April; S4C and BBC Radio Cymru aired Y Ddadl Fawr on Thursday 23 April; the BBC One Wales debate is scheduled for Tuesday 28 April. Immigration dominated the ITV debate despite the Senedd having no powers over it.

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Key takeaway

The Welsh debates centre on immigration, an issue the Senedd cannot legislate on.

ITV Cymru Wales hosted "Wales Decides 2026" on Sunday 19 April with all six party leaders, presented by Adrian Masters ¹. The most heated exchange came on immigration: Reform and the Conservatives were accused of "stoking divisive rhetoric". Reform Wales's Dan Thomas defended the position as "voicing the genuine concerns that the general public have in Wales". Welsh Labour First Minister Eluned Morgan interjected on Reform's claim of £40m in NHS savings: "that wouldn't pay for the NHS for half a day".

S4C and BBC Radio Cymru aired "Y Ddadl Fawr" on Thursday 23 April, presented by Bethan Rhys Roberts. The third Welsh debate, on BBC One Wales also presented by Rhys Roberts, is scheduled for Tuesday 28 April from a Cardiff studio audience. The Senedd has no immigration powers, which are reserved to Westminster, but the issue dominated the first televised exchange and is expected to recur. The Welsh ballot under the new closed-list system translates national vote share directly into Senedd seats, which makes each televised exchange a direct input into the seat allocation that the post-debate polling will register.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Wales is about to elect a new Senedd (the Welsh Parliament) on 7 May. Before the election, all the major party leaders take part in televised debates , similar to the UK general election debates, but for Welsh politics. ITV Cymru Wales (the Welsh ITV channel) hosted the first debate on 19 April, with all six party leaders. S4C, the Welsh-language TV channel, and BBC Radio Cymru broadcast a second debate, 'Y Ddadl Fawr' (which means 'The Big Debate' in Welsh), on 23 April. A third debate on BBC One Wales is scheduled for 28 April, one week before polling day. Much of the first debate focused on immigration, despite the Senedd holding no power over it; immigration policy is set by the UK Parliament at Westminster. Reform UK's Dan Thomas argued the public cares about it regardless. First Minister Eluned Morgan (Welsh Labour) challenged Reform's claim that £40 million in NHS savings would be possible, saying it would not cover the Welsh NHS for half a day. These debates matter because polling projects that Welsh Labour, which has governed Wales since 1999, could fall from 29 to as few as 12 Senedd seats (ID:2316). Many voters are encountering the new parties and the new voting system for the first time.

Sources:ITV Cymru Wales

Mentions:ITV News Wales →S4C →BBC Radio Cymru →Eluned Morgan →Tinopolis →BBC One Wales →Parliament →Wales →Welsh Labour →Senedd →Reform UK →Westminster →Dan Thomas →Adrian Masters →Bethan Rhys Roberts →

First Reported In

Update #5 · 11 Days to Go: Six-of-six, RPA dies, Welsh lead flips

ITV Cymru Wales· 26 Apr 2026

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Causes and effects

This Event

Welsh leaders debates expose immigration paradox

The strongest Reform mobilisation issue runs through a chamber that cannot legislate on it, putting the Welsh debates at the centre of a campaign whose pivot issue is reserved to Westminster.

Led to

Welsh Labour at 12%, lowest since 1906

The BBC Wales debate scheduled in ID:2805 occurred on 28 April and produced the Farage minus 18 and ap Iorwerth plus 10 net ratings reported here

Occurred 28 Apr 2026

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Different Perspectives

UK Government (Labour)

Westminster framed the youth justice transfer as a culmination of prior work rather than a precedent, refused a Section 30 order before the request arrived, and omitted both the Representation of the People Bill and any Wales Bill from the 13 May King's Speech. Starmer is described as open to a devolved-leaders summit in June.

Reform UK

Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk filed pre-action protocol letters framing their LGR challenge as mandate-consistent, while 22 Reform councillors departed in 14 days at an annualised rate nearly three times the 10 percent projection. Richard Tice defended the Harborne 5 million pound gift as unconditional, with no acknowledgement of Farage's two contradictory accounts on record.

SNP (Scottish Government)

Swinney submitted a Section 30 request on 14 May citing the 73-seat SNP-Greens pro-independence bloc and the 2014 Edinburgh Agreement precedent, despite the SNP finishing seven below his self-set 65-seat trigger. Downing Street's contradictory readout of their call suggests Westminster is treating the request as a holding item rather than a live constitutional negotiation.

Welsh Government (Plaid Cymru)

ap Iorwerth framed the youth justice transfer as a starting point for his six-power Wales Bill agenda, pressing demands at a phone call with Keir Starmer on 18 May and winning the first statutory function transfer to Cardiff since 1999. The Greens' unwritten confidence-and-supply arrangement gives him 45 of 96 seats, four short of a majority.

Russell Findlay (Scottish Conservatives)

Findlay refused to resign as Scottish Conservative leader after the party fell to 12 Holyrood seats and lost all five constituency MSPs. He declined Swinney's post-election talks invitation, the only major-party leader to do so.

John Swinney (SNP)

Swinney committed on 14 May to a Holyrood Section 30 vote within a week despite winning seven seats fewer than his own trigger threshold, relying on a SNP-Green majority of 73. He tabled a meeting with Starmer; Downing Street disputed that any referendum discussion was agreed.