24JUL

Wales holds first 96-seat PR Senedd election 7 May

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Wales holds its first Senedd election under a new closed-list proportional representation system on 7 May 2026, expanding the chamber from 60 to 96 seats across 16 six-member constituencies allocated by D'Hondt.

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Key takeaway

Wales votes on 7 May under a brand-new 96-seat closed-list PR system that no Welsh voter has used before.

Wales holds its first election to a 96-seat Senedd on 7 May 2026 under a new closed-list proportional representation system. The chamber expands from 60 seats to 96 across 16 six-member constituencies, with seats allocated by the D'Hondt method. Each party publishes a ranked list of up to eight candidates per constituency; voters cast a single vote for a party, not a candidate, and seats are awarded to list positions in order until the constituency's six seats are filled.

The system replaces the previous Additional Member System (AMS) that had been used at every Senedd election since the chamber opened in 1999. The Senedd Research Service estimates a party needs roughly 12 per cent of a constituency vote to win a single seat, the implicit threshold the D'Hondt arithmetic produces across a six-member district. Any party falling below that line in a constituency takes no seat there regardless of its national share.

The change is the largest single Reform to the Welsh electoral system since devolution began. Voters who previously cast a constituency vote and a regional list vote now cast only one, for a party. The identity of the person who reaches Cardiff Bay depends entirely on how each party has ordered its internal list, a decision taken inside party machinery before nominations. The 96-seat expansion is paired with no statutory gender floor, following the withdrawal of the Senedd Cymru (Electoral Candidate Lists) Bill in September 2024, leaving women's representation dependent on internal party list-ordering decisions.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Until now, Wales has used a mixed system to elect its parliament: you cast two votes — one for a local candidate, one for a regional party. The regional votes were designed to compensate for how lopsided the local results were, making the final result more proportional. From 7 May, Wales switches to a simpler but more purely proportional system: you vote once, for a party. Each party has ranked its candidates in advance in each area. Seats go to list positions in order until all six seats per area are filled. The chamber also grows from 60 to 96 members, because the Senedd needed more capacity to scrutinise a devolved government that has grown significantly in responsibility since 1999. The tradeoff is that voters can no longer vote for individual candidates — only for parties.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

The switch to closed-list PR was driven primarily by the Senedd's need to expand in size without redrawing constituency boundaries in a way that would create an odd hybrid with Westminster seats. The 60-seat chamber was widely considered too small to run an effective committee system and opposition. Expanding to 96 under AMS would have required either doubling regional list seats or redrawing all constituency lines.

The closed-list D'Hondt model was the path of least structural resistance: it uses the same 16-constituency map as the Westminster seats in Wales, each returning six members, which avoids the boundary complexity. The gender representation cost — removing the AMS mechanism through which Labour had voluntarily balanced its candidate slates — was a known tradeoff that the gender-zipping bill was supposed to mitigate.

What could happen next?

Precedent
If Wales's first closed-list PR election produces a stable and proportional government, it creates a template for future reform proposals for the House of Commons.
Risk
Voter confusion in the first closed-list PR Senedd election could produce higher spoilt ballot rates than normal, particularly in areas with high first-time voter registration.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: The 1999 Senedd elections used AMS, the same system devised for Holyrood, producing a broadly proportional result that gave Labour a minority government with Liberal Democrat support. The switch to closed-list D'Hondt is the biggest structural break from that original settlement — comparable to Holyrood switching system, which no Scottish government has proposed.

Counter-parallel: The Republic of Ireland uses a version of proportional representation (STV) that, unlike closed-list D'Hondt, preserves voter choice over individual candidates within a party list. Wales chose the simpler closed-list model partly for administrative reasons — fewer ballot papers, clearer count rules — accepting the tradeoff of removing individual candidate preference from the voter.

Sources:Senedd Research Service·Democracy Club

Mentions:Senedd →Senedd Research Service →Wales Governance Centre →Senedd Cymru (Electoral Candidate Lists) Bill →Wales →Cardiff Bay →Prima →Parliament →Welsh Labour →Additional Member System (AMS) →D'Hondt method →

First Reported In

Update #1 · Wales rewrites parliament no voter has used

Senedd Research Service· 7 Apr 2026

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Causes and effects

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Wales holds first 96-seat PR Senedd election 7 May

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Different Perspectives

Reform UK

Reform lost Old Catton, the Norfolk seat it won by 1,006 votes ten weeks earlier, to the Conservatives on 16 July, while holding second in both other 16 July by-elections it did not previously hold. The party's May intake already undershot MRP polling by 38%, evidence its local base is thinner than its seat count suggested.

MHCLG / Steve Reed

Reed confirmed 38 new unitaries for 14 counties on 16 July but held back West Sussex and Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, saying further time was needed. The department locked in the areas it was confident defending and paused the two it was not.

Local Government Association / litigating councils

Harlow's judicial review, filed 22 July, makes it the fifth council suing over reorganisation, joining Essex, Norfolk, Suffolk and Portsmouth, with none yet granted a full hearing. New LGA chair Eamonn O'Brien's 7 July intervention now sits behind their case, arguing the timetable itself risks statutory services.

Local Government Association

New chair Eamonn O'Brien broke the LGA's neutrality on reorganisation for the first time since December 2024, telling the incoming prime minister the 'unprecedented scale' of disaggregation risks statutory services and asking him to adjust the LGR timetable, aligning the sector's institutional voice with the judicial review claims Suffolk, Essex and Norfolk have already filed.

Incoming Burnham government

Burnham secured 349 of the backing the NEC's 81-MP threshold required by 13 July, becoming Labour leader on 17 July and prime minister on 20 July without a members' ballot. He now inherits the LGR timetable the LGA wants him to adjust and a finance bill his own backbencher, Liam Byrne, is trying to harden further via amendment NC34.

Rupert Lowe / Restore Britain

Lowe called Farage's Clacton contest a 'Reform-sponsored media circus' and kept Restore Britain out of it, pledging instead to stand in the second by-election he expects the Harborne inquiry to force later this year. The boycott doubles as a signal that Restore Britain, not Reform, will contest the 'real' vote.