Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
Russia-Ukraine War 2026
19JUL

Brent at $92 as premiums idle tankers

3 min read
13:35UTC

Brent reached $92.09 on Wednesday morning, a fourth straight daily gain, while war-risk premiums of 3% to 10% of hull value keep legal cargo sitting where it is.

← Back to Fedorov sacked as the front stands stillJump to analysis ↓
ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Gulf cargo stays put because of what it costs to insure, not because of what blocks it.

Brent crude traded at $92.09 at 01:30 GMT on Wednesday 22 July, up 1.2% and its highest since 11 June, a fourth consecutive daily gain 1.

War-risk premiums for a Strait of Hormuz transit now run at 3% to 10% of a vessel's hull value, against 0.25% before the war 2. On a $100 million tanker that is $3m to $10m a voyage where it used to be about $250,000. The largest vessels are quoted $10m to $14m, and the charge falls on the charterer rather than the owner.

Whoever books the ship pays that premium up front and adds it to the delivered cost of the barrels. A buyer with any alternative supplier declines the cargo, and the charter is never fixed. So a legal, licensed, fully insurable parcel of crude sits where it is, because nobody at either end of the voyage will carry a $10 million charge the barrels cannot recover. The Lloyd's Market Association is explicit that cover remains available: what suppresses transits is price and crew willingness, not capacity 3. Underwriting resets slowly, and crews have longer memories than markets.

CENTCOM (US Central Command) frames the same water differently. Its 21 July statement says US forces have facilitated the transit of roughly 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude "since early May", redirected eight vessels and disabled one 4. No date window is attached to the 900-vessel figure, so it cannot be set against the 66% weekly fall in transits recorded on 21 July . The two counts cover different things over different periods.

In a note dated 20 July, Daan Struyven of Goldman Sachs set out an upside case of Brent above $120 by the fourth quarter, conditional on Hormuz disruption persisting and Persian Gulf flows staying below roughly 45% of pre-war levels 5. Goldman's base case is $80 in the fourth quarter and about $75 in 2027 6. The higher number describes what happens if nothing changes, not what the bank expects.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Brent crude, the main international oil price benchmark, rose to $92.09 a barrel, its highest level since 11 June and the fourth straight daily rise. Oil often gets more expensive when investors worry that war could disrupt supply, even before that disruption actually happens. A lot of this price rise comes down to insurance, not ships actually being stopped. Sailing through the Gulf now costs shipping companies far more in war-risk insurance than before the war, and that extra cost is passed on. Insurers say enough cover is technically available, it has simply become expensive enough that some owners choose not to sail. Goldman Sachs, a major investment bank, has said oil could go above $120 a barrel later this year, but only if the situation gets significantly worse. Its actual expectation for now is closer to $80.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

War-risk premiums of 3-10% of hull value, not a shortage of naval capacity or insurance cover, are what is keeping tankers from sailing the Gulf, according to the Lloyd's Market Association. For the largest vessels, insurers are seeking $10-14 million per Hormuz voyage, a cost charged to the charterer rather than the shipowner.

Because that liability sits with charterers and crews rather than a fixed physical bottleneck, the decision to sail is a commercial one made voyage by voyage, which is why price continues climbing even as CENTCOM reports it is still moving substantial volumes through the strait.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    If Gulf flows fall and stay below roughly 45% of pre-war levels through Q4, Goldman's contingent $120+ scenario becomes the operative case rather than its $80 base case.

  • Opportunity

    Because the Lloyd's Market Association says insurance capacity remains available, a de-escalation could unwind the price premium quickly, as happened after the 1990 Gulf War spike.

Sources:CENTCOM·The National·Bloomberg
Mentions:Brent Crude →Lloyd's Market Association →Daan Struyven →Goldman Sachs →CENTCOM (US Central Command) →Strait of Hormuz →Persian Gulf →Kuwait →Brent-WTI →
First Reported In

Update #159 · A second strait closes by radio alone

CENTCOM· 22 Jul 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
Hormuz crossings fall by two thirds
The 66% weekly fall in Hormuz transits recorded on 21 July is the baseline against which the 22 July Brent rise and CENTCOM's throughput claim are measured.
Occurred 21 Jul 2026
Read story →
This Event
Brent at $92 as premiums idle tankers
Insurance pricing rather than naval capacity is what stops the ships, which is why Gulf traffic will not snap back when the shooting stops.
Different Perspectives
The United Kingdom
The United Kingdom
Starmer pledged £300 million in Kyiv on 16 July toward Ukraine's Gripen E squadron, adding to the PURL expansion Trump and Rutte had announced two days earlier. London is paying into a scheme built around a shortfall NATO's own published $4bn-plus pledge does not close against Zelenskyy's roughly $15bn stated need.
Brussels
Brussels
The EU's 21st sanctions package missed its Coreper vote on 15 July over Greek LNG re-export rights and an Austrian bank compensation demand, the same week Hungary stalled accession clusters on procedure rather than veto. Both processes run on unanimity, so a single national interest, not Russia policy, sets the pace either can move at.
Hungary's Tisza government
Hungary's Tisza government
Budapest refused to open EU accession Clusters 2 and 3 for Ukraine at COELA on 17 July, offering Moldova a standalone opening instead, and the question returns on 22 July. Having ended Orbán's blanket loan veto in May, it now blocks the narrower rule-of-law chapters where its own electorate is least comfortable.
Washington
Washington
Trump and Rutte expanded PURL on 14 July, letting allies fund the American interceptors and jets Washington will license but no longer gift outright. The same week, Lockheed Martin told allies it cannot guarantee PAC-3 MSE delivery timelines even after tripling output, so Washington now shapes Ukraine's air defence through a supply queue rather than a donation decision.
Moscow
Moscow
Novak ordered a study into cutting the diesel exchange quota to 10% within a week of his export ban, while June delivered Russia's first budget surplus of 2026 and National Wealth Fund liquidity above its own May forecast. Its own investors disagree: the Moscow Exchange has fallen for its longest losing streak since 1997.
Ukraine's government and its street protesters
Ukraine's government and its street protesters
Zelenskyy sacked Fedorov on 15 July, installed an acting SBU officer in his place, and did not move against three days of protest that followed across eight cities. He is betting that visible tolerance for dissent, timed to EU accession hearings on rule of law, outweighs whatever command dispute forced the reshuffle.