1JUN

Brent holds at $95 as markets wait

2 min read

10:39UTC

Oil prices stayed flat at $95-97, pricing a sustained stalemate rather than confidence in resolution.

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Key takeaway

Brent above $95 reflects a market that expects neither resolution nor collapse.

Brent Crude traded between $95.20 and $96.69 on 11-12 April, essentially flat from the prior update's $96.39 . The post-Ceasefire drop to $92 proved temporary; Brent has since recovered and settled into a narrow band above $95.

The flat range tells a story. Markets are not pricing in a clean resolution. They are not pricing in a return to conflict either. They are pricing a structural stalemate: the Hormuz strait stays mostly closed, supply stays constrained, and nobody knows what happens when the Ceasefire expires.

Oxford Economics projects world GDP growth at 1.4% in 2026 if the conflict persists, down from a 2.6% baseline. War risk insurance premiums remain four to five times pre-war levels. Commercial vessels rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope add 10 to 20 days per voyage, and US importer freight rates have risen by up to 50%.

Most equity markets have not yet priced in a sustained conflict scenario, which means the current oil price may be an underestimate of the economic shock if the Ceasefire collapses without a replacement framework. Brent peaked sharply higher before the Ceasefire was announced; a return to those levels would sharpen the GDP drag considerably.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Brent crude is the global oil price benchmark. It is trading just above $95 per barrel, roughly $20 above where it was before the conflict. The fact it has stayed flat, neither rising sharply nor falling, tells you what the markets think: they expect the stalemate to continue for a while, but they do not expect a catastrophic escalation either. Oxford Economics, one of the most widely-cited economic forecasting institutions, estimates that if this conflict drags on, the world economy will grow by only 1.4% in 2026, down from 2.6% without the conflict. That 1.2-percentage-point reduction does not sound like much, but at the scale of the global economy it represents roughly $1.2 trillion in lost output, roughly the entire GDP of Spain for a year. For ordinary people, the most direct effect is energy costs. Sustained $95+ Brent flows through to petrol, diesel, gas, and electricity prices over weeks to months.

What could happen next?

Consequence
Markets pricing a structural stalemate rather than resolution means Brent will stay elevated regardless of ceasefire expiry, unless Hormuz transit actually resumes at scale, a signal the first oil tanker full transit would provide.
Risk
The Oxford Economics 1.4% global growth scenario is predicated on sustained conflict without re-escalation; a return to active hostilities would trigger a spike above $110, potentially pushing the global economy into recession territory.

Source Landscape

This story draws on centre-leaning sources from United States

United States

LeftRight

Brent's rangebound posture at $95-97 is characteristic of a 'managed disruption premium': markets have priced in the Hormuz closure but have not yet priced in re-escalation, which would likely push Brent past $110. Previous strait disruption episodes (1980 Tanker War, 1990 Gulf War) saw spike-and-crash patterns rather than the sustained plateau now in place.

The Oxford Economics 1.2 percentage-point GDP reduction has distributional implications that aggregate figures obscure: energy-importing emerging economies (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, sub-Saharan Africa) face a disproportionate squeeze because energy costs represent a larger share of household expenditure. The International Energy Agency has flagged that India, which imports 85% of its oil, faces the sharpest per-capita GDP drag of any major economy.

Sources:Stimson Center

Mentions:Cape of Good Hope →Strait of Hormuz Toll System →Oxford Economics →Brent Crude →

First Reported In

Update #66 · Islamabad collapses: 10 days to expiry

Stimson Center· 12 Apr 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Brent crude recovers from post-ceasefire low

Brent at $96.39 (ID:2211) held essentially flat to the $95.20-$96.69 range on 11-12 April, confirming sustained market pricing of the conflict stalemate.

Occurred 11 Apr 2026

Read story →

This Event

Brent holds at $95 as markets wait

Rangebound Brent above $95 means markets have not priced in a clean resolution, and the economic cost of the conflict is accumulating, not receding.

Led to

Oil surges past $103 on blockade

Brent at $95-97 on 11-12 April jumped 8% past $103 as the blockade announcement repriced markets from stalemate to active escalation.

Occurred 13 Apr 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

China

Beijing has not publicly commented on the dual Oreshnik launch. China's declared position of urging restraint and dialogue sits awkwardly alongside its continued economic ties with Russia; the weapons escalation tests whether Beijing's neutrality framing can survive a European IRBM normalisation event.

IAEA

Director General Grossi condemned the ZNPP reactor-6 turbine building strike and stated "there should be no attack of any kind from or against the plant." The agency confirmed normal radiation levels but has not resolved attribution; Rosatom CEO Likachev warned the region is "one step closer to an incident."

Turkey

Ankara hosted Istanbul Round 2 at Ciragan Palace on 2 June and secured a 1,200-for-1,200 prisoner exchange, consolidating Turkey as the war's sole diplomatic venue after Rubio confirmed US mediation has ended. Erdogan's leverage over both parties grows with each round.

European Union

EU Ambassador Mathernova answered Lavrov's evacuation demand with "We stay in Kyiv. We stay with Ukraine." The Verkhovna Rada approved the EUR 90bn EU loan on 28 May; the EUR 9.1bn first tranche, the EU's first explicit defence-procurement financing, arrives mid-June.

United States

Rubio declared US mediation stagnated on 22 May and confirmed no talks were occurring, then received Lavrov's evacuation demand three days later without ordering embassy drawdown. Washington's leverage now runs through the GL 134C sanctions cliff on 17 June rather than any active diplomatic channel.

Ukraine

Zelenskyy called Russia's 2-3 day ceasefire counter-offer at Istanbul Round 2 "shortsighted" and submitted a full peace memorandum covering EU membership, international guarantees, phased sanctions relief and frozen-asset reparations. Kyiv's position is that a partial ceasefire freeze aids Russian reconstitution; only an all-domain 30-day pause is acceptable.