Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Russia-Ukraine War 2026
13MAY

Collins, Tillis back Murkowski's Iran AUMF draft

3 min read
20:00UTC

Republican senators Susan Collins and Thom Tillis publicly signalled support for Lisa Murkowski's pre-committee Iran AUMF on 25 April. The draft remains pre-referral with six days to the 1 May War Powers deadline.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Two Republican signatures bring Murkowski's AUMF closer to markup before the 1 May War Powers deadline.

Senator Lisa Murkowski's Iran AUMF draft has not formally reached committee, but Susan Collins and Thom Tillis publicly signalled support on 25 April 1. Tillis told reporters he has been "in conversations with Murkowski about her proposal" and said it "would put to bed this whole narrative about whether Congress supports ongoing action". John Curtis of Utah signalled similar reservations about war authority. Josh Hawley's earlier AUMF push has gone quiet.

The Authorisation for the Use of Military Force is the formal congressional instrument that licenses the executive branch to keep US forces in hostilities. Without it, the War Powers Resolution of 1973 imposes a 60-day clock from the introduction of US Armed Forces into hostilities; the Senate rejected the fifth WPR by 51-46 on 22 April and Murkowski drafted the AUMF in the same week . If the vehicle reaches markup before 1 May it creates a bipartisan signed instrument the executive branch does not control, potentially binding operational authorities the President has so far exercised verbally.

Senate Democrats hold a further eight WPR resolutions in procedural reserve, which extends pressure into May regardless of what Murkowski produces by Friday 1 May. The exact start date for the WPR clock is contested, with 28 February (first CENTCOM engagement), 4 March (first confirmed hostile fire exchange), or a later date The Administration may argue. If the trigger date is challenged before the courts, the 1 May deadline could be extended without a Senate vote.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The US Constitution gives Congress the power to declare war, but since the 1970s, presidents have fought wars using executive authority without a formal declaration. To put limits on this, Congress passed the War Powers Resolution in 1973, which says the president must get congressional approval within 60 days of starting military action, or stop. Trump launched strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026. The 60-day clock expires on 1 May 2026. Five Senate votes to end the war have failed. Now Senator Lisa Murkowski is working on a different approach: an AUMF (Authorization for Use of Military Force), which is a congressional vote to formally authorise the war already in progress, rather than to end it. The difference matters. A WPR vote to end the war is politically difficult (senators are seen as siding with Iran). An AUMF authorising the war is easier to vote for, but gives Congress a formal stake in how the war is conducted, including requiring disclosure and transparency Trump has so far avoided.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Two structural forces are pushing Senate Republicans toward the Murkowski AUMF rather than continued WPR rejection.

The first is the 51-46 WPR margin from 22 April. Five WPR votes have failed, but the margin is narrowing: the fourth vote failed 47-52, the fifth 51-46. John Fetterman crossing to Republicans and Rand Paul crossing to Democrats on the same vote confirms the coalition is unstable. Republicans who cannot hold the WPR line have an incentive to pre-empt further WPR votes by passing an AUMF that formally settles the legal question.

Thom Tillis announced he will not seek a third term, converting his North Carolina seat into an open contest. A senator with no re-election constraint is more willing to publicly support an independent oversight vehicle; Tillis's endorsement of Murkowski signals that the retiring-senator caucus may be the most tractable Republican constituency for any war-constraint measure.

What could happen next?
  • Opportunity

    If Murkowski's AUMF reaches the floor before 1 May and passes, it would produce the first formal signed Iran war instrument of the conflict, creating a legal baseline any subsequent diplomatic settlement would need to address.

    Immediate · 0.52
  • Risk

    An AUMF that passes without meaningful disclosure conditions would entrench the war's legal basis and reduce future congressional leverage, despite its proponents' stated transparency goals.

    Medium term · 0.68
  • Consequence

    Hawley's AUMF push has gone quiet (ID:2676); if Murkowski's vehicle advances, it consolidates the congressional war-authorisation debate around a transparency-focused text rather than Hawley's earlier harder-line version.

    Short term · 0.75
First Reported In

Update #79 · Islamabad 3 collapses; Witkoff grounded, talks stall

The Hill· 25 Apr 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
North Korea / DPRK
North Korea / DPRK
ISW confirmed the first mounting of DPRK Type-75 MLRS on Russian autonomous UGVs near Kharkiv on 7 June, the latest step in a supply axis that escalated from shells in 2023 to troops in 2024. Pyongyang gains live battlefield data on its ordnance and on Russia's uncrewed-systems programme.
IAEA / Rafael Grossi
IAEA / Rafael Grossi
Grossi confirmed Chornobyl structural damage with nuclear material metres away and could not attribute the ZNPP 15-hour blackout during the agreed repair window. Six ceasefires brokered and broken at ZNPP, compounded by Rosatom's May attack on IAEA neutrality, have eroded his ability to enforce the windows he negotiates.
Emmanuel Macron / France
Emmanuel Macron / France
Macron co-signed the E3 framework whose line-of-contact baseline marks Europe's first formal acceptance that 1991 borders are not the opening position. France's role carries weight because Macron had previously proposed a European force for Ukraine, and the framework's multinational force point is the vehicle for that.
Keir Starmer / E3
Keir Starmer / E3
Starmer, Macron and Merz met Zelenskyy on 7 June and backed a five-point framework taking the line of contact as the talks baseline, conceding roughly one fifth of Ukraine in exchange for a multinational force and frozen assets. With US mediation ended, the NATO Ankara summit on 7-8 July is the next test.
Vladimir Putin / Kremlin
Vladimir Putin / Kremlin
Putin used SPIEF to reject Zelenskyy's summit letter, citing 'elements of rudeness', and repeated the pre-agreed treaty precondition that has frozen every diplomatic round since May. The SPIEF platform's message of investor confidence was punctured by naval fires visible from St Petersburg, which Moscow declined to dispute in scale.
Ukraine / Unmanned Systems Forces
Ukraine / Unmanned Systems Forces
Commander Brovdi confirmed USF units tracked and set fire to Boikyi at Kronstadt, while Code 9.2 struck the Chonhar Bridge the following day. Ukraine is sequencing strikes for rear-area interdiction and political timing rather than ground gains, trading the Baltic Fleet's home base for the logistics squeeze Russia cannot absorb without rationing its own occupied territory.