Brent crude (the international oil benchmark) fell to $96.68 per barrel on Wednesday, down from $104 at the start of the week but still 43% above the pre-war baseline of $67.41. The slide began Sunday when Donald Trump announced his 15-point ceasefire plan and continued despite Iran's categorical rejection.
Sunday's 10.9% crash to $99.94 reversed to $102-104 within 48 hours. Physical crude tells a different story from futures: the record $14.20-per-barrel spot premium means refiners pay an effective $111 or more for delivered barrels, even as paper barrels trade at $97. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed; the physical price is more likely to pull paper up than reverse.
For British drivers, the war has added roughly 15p per litre at the pump since February. A return to the $126 peak would push that toward 30p. Goldman Sachs head of oil research Daan Struyven raised the probability of US recession to 25% at oil above $120.
