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Iran Conflict 2026
2APR

Urea Up 77%; Petrol Holds at $4

2 min read
08:35UTC

Fertiliser prices have surged as one-third of global supply transits Hormuz. US petrol at $4.02 is the floor, not the spike.

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Key takeaway

The 77% urea surge will hit food prices within one harvest cycle.

CSIS reports urea prices up 77% since December 2025 1. One-third of all globally shipped fertiliser transits Hormuz. Brent crude sits at $105.53 2. US petrol is $4.02 per gallon. Diesel is $5.45.

The petrol figure broke the $4 barrier on 31 March for the first time since 2022. The fertiliser number has received less attention but carries longer consequences. Urea feeds through to food prices within 90 days. Northern hemisphere spring planting is under way. If GL-U lapses on 19 April and 128 million barrels lose their legal market, the second-order effects compound.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Urea is the world's most common fertiliser. It is made from natural gas, and one third of the world's traded supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. With the strait closed, urea prices have jumped 77% since December. Farmers buy fertiliser in spring. If urea is too expensive or unavailable, they plant less or use less fertiliser per acre. Smaller crops or lower yields mean higher food prices in autumn. The connection between a closed shipping lane in the Gulf and bread prices in a European supermarket runs through this fertiliser number.

Sources:Irish Times / Majorca Daily Bulletin·Irish Times / Majorca Daily Bulletin·Hengaw Organisation for Human Rights
Mentions:Russia →Bangladesh →Chatham House →Strait of Hormuz →Shah Gas Field →Brent Crude →Center for Strategic and International Studies →
First Reported In

Update #55 · The Last Door Closes

Irish Times / Majorca Daily Bulletin· 2 Apr 2026
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