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Urea Up 77%; Petrol Holds at $4

2 min read

08:35UTC

Fertiliser prices have surged as one-third of global supply transits Hormuz. US petrol at $4.02 is the floor, not the spike.

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Key takeaway

The 77% urea surge will hit food prices within one harvest cycle.

CSIS reports urea prices up 77% since December 2025⁠¹. One-third of all globally shipped fertiliser transits Hormuz. Brent crude sits at $105.53⁠². US petrol is $4.02 per gallon. Diesel is $5.45.

The petrol figure broke the $4 barrier on 31 March for the first time since 2022. The fertiliser number has received less attention but carries longer consequences. Urea feeds through to food prices within 90 days. Northern hemisphere spring planting is under way. If GL-U lapses on 19 April and 128 million barrels lose their legal market, the second-order effects compound.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Urea is the world's most common fertiliser. It is made from natural gas, and one third of the world's traded supply passes through the strait of Hormuz. With the strait closed, urea prices have jumped 77% since December. Farmers buy fertiliser in spring. If urea is too expensive or unavailable, they plant less or use less fertiliser per acre. Smaller crops or lower yields mean higher food prices in autumn. The connection between a closed shipping lane in The Gulf and bread prices in a European supermarket runs through this fertiliser number.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources from Iran

Iran

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Urea at a 77% premium raises breakeven wheat prices by approximately 12-18% in regions heavily dependent on Gulf-sourced fertiliser. The spring planting calendar imposes a hard deadline: applications must begin by mid-May in the northern hemisphere. A 30-day shipping lag means the fertiliser supply decision was effectively made in mid-March, before GL-U was issued.

If GL-U lapses on 19 April and Hormuz remains closed into May, the 2026 harvest cycle in major wheat-importing nations (Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia) will reflect the current price shock. Food import bills for vulnerable net-importers will rise by 15-25% in Q3 2026.

Consensus view: CSIS food security analysts and Chatham House's food and farming programme both identify the northern hemisphere spring planting window (March-May) as the critical vulnerability. Urea ordered now with a 30-day shipping lag feeds through to autumn yields. A 77% price increase reduces application rates among price-sensitive farmers in South and Southeast Asia first.

Counter-view: Yara International, the world's largest fertiliser company, has indicated European production can partially compensate using North Sea gas, though at substantially higher cost. The substitution is feasible for European farmers but not for subsistence farmers in South Asia or sub-Saharan Africa.

Key tension: The fertiliser shock is not uniformly distributed. The countries with the least Hormuz exposure geopolitically may face the worst food security consequences.

Sources:CSIS·Goodreturns (market data)·Hengaw Organisation for Human Rights

Mentions:Russia →Bangladesh →Chatham House →Strait of Hormuz →Brent Crude →Center for Strategic and International Studies →North Sea →Yara International →Bank of England →

First Reported In

Update #55 · The Last Door Closes

CSIS· 2 Apr 2026

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Different Perspectives

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