2APR

Ryanair Warns of European Fuel Shortage

2 min read

08:35UTC

Europe's largest low-cost airline says jet fuel could run short from May. The benchmark has doubled to $195 per barrel.

← Back to The Last Door Closes Jump to analysis ↓

ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

A quarter of Europe's jet fuel comes from The Gulf; shortages loom from May.

Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary warned on 1 April that European jet fuel supply could run short from May if the war continues past April⁠¹. 25-30% of Europe's jet fuel comes from The Persian Gulf. The global jet fuel benchmark has more than doubled to roughly $195 per barrel, up from $85-90 pre-war. Ryanair hedged 80% of its fuel; the remaining 20% is exposed at current market rates. Summer flight cancellations are possible.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Europe's largest budget airline says jet fuel could run short from May. About a quarter of Europe's jet fuel comes from The Gulf. The benchmark price has more than doubled to $195 per barrel. Airlines hedge fuel costs by buying contracts in advance. Ryanair hedged 80% of its fuel needs at lower prices. The problem is that hedges run out. When they do, the airline must buy at market prices. If supply also runs short, some routes stop flying. Summer 2026 is when that risk lands.

Source Landscape

This story draws on mixed-leaning sources from Ireland

Ireland

At $195 per barrel, jet fuel is roughly 130% above its pre-war $85 level. Ryanair's hedged 80% provides a buffer that expires at different points through Q2. The unhedged 20% at current market rates adds roughly €2-3 per passenger per flight, before any supply shortage premium.

European jet fuel refineries sourcing from Gulf crudes face a structural delay: refinery product from non-Gulf crude runs at lower volume because European refineries were optimised for Gulf light sweet grades. Switching crude slates requires 4-6 weeks of operational adjustment. If the war continues past mid-April, European jet fuel supply will not recover before peak summer travel demand regardless of what happens at Hormuz.

Consensus view: IATA and the Oxford Energy Institute both project European jet fuel margins tightening from late April if the conflict extends, with some regional airports facing allocation constraints rather than outright shortage. The risk is differential: smaller European carriers with less hedging capacity face operational pressure before Ryanair does.

Counter-view: Argus Media commodity analysts note European refiners are already diverting middle distillate output toward jet fuel from diesel, providing a partial offset. The supply constraint may be less severe than O'Leary's warning implies for the European market specifically.

Key tension: Whether European refinery flexibility can offset The Gulf supply gap through the summer travel peak, or whether the gap is large enough that even full European refinery optimisation cannot close it.

Sources:Irish Times / Majorca Daily Bulletin·Irish Times / Majorca Daily Bulletin

Mentions:Russia →Bangladesh →Persian Gulf →Ryanair →Brent Crude →Argus Media →

First Reported In

Update #55 · The Last Door Closes

Irish Times / Majorca Daily Bulletin· 2 Apr 2026

Read original →

Different Perspectives

Russia

Russia vetoed the same renewal on 17 September, arguing that Britain, France and Germany never validly triggered the snapback that reimposed the pre-2015 UN resolutions. No panel was ever seated under that mandate, so the UN list decays fastest for states that screen against it rather than against the American one.

China

China vetoed renewal of the UN sanctions monitoring mandate on 17 September, arguing that Resolution 2231 terminated on 18 October 2025 and that the Security Council should drop Iran's nuclear file altogether. On that reading there is nothing to monitor, so the sanctions survive and their enforcement does not.

Iraq

Baghdad saw the last American counter-Islamic State troops leave its territory on 30 September, completing a timetable it agreed with Washington in September 2024. Iraqi airspace deconfliction passes to Baghdad, which still has an open inquiry into the Maysan drone launches that has named nobody.

Pakistan

Treasury names Waseem Pasha Tajammal of Rawalpindi as the Cavalier group's chairman and places one of the designated incorporations in Islamabad. QatarEnergy separately told Pakistan that liquefied natural gas cargo cancellations would run through November, so Islamabad carries an enforcement question and a supply gap at once.

Turkey

Treasury named a Cavalier Dynamics company incorporated in Istanbul among the ten nodes it designated on 29 September, and Ankara has published no response. Turkey imported a record 120,000 barrels a day of Indian diesel in August, cutting Russia's share of its diesel imports to 20 per cent.

India

Suraj Yadav, a wiper from Uttar Pradesh, was killed aboard the Cape Dao on 23 September, and 19 of the ship's 20 Indian crew were taken off alive. India's September imports ran at 575,000 barrels a day from Iraq and 566,000 from Saudi Arabia, back to pre-conflict rates.