2APR

Ryanair Warns of European Fuel Shortage

2 min read

08:35UTC

Europe's largest low-cost airline says jet fuel could run short from May. The benchmark has doubled to $195 per barrel.

← Back to The Last Door Closes Jump to analysis ↓

ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

A quarter of Europe's jet fuel comes from the Gulf; shortages loom from May.

Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary warned on 1 April that European jet fuel supply could run short from May if the war continues past April ¹. 25-30% of Europe's jet fuel comes from the Persian Gulf. The global jet fuel benchmark has more than doubled to roughly $195 per barrel, up from $85-90 pre-war. Ryanair hedged 80% of its fuel; the remaining 20% is exposed at current market rates. Summer flight cancellations are possible.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Europe's largest budget airline says jet fuel could run short from May. About a quarter of Europe's jet fuel comes from the Gulf. The benchmark price has more than doubled to $195 per barrel. Airlines hedge fuel costs by buying contracts in advance. Ryanair hedged 80% of its fuel needs at lower prices. The problem is that hedges run out. When they do, the airline must buy at market prices. If supply also runs short, some routes stop flying. Summer 2026 is when that risk lands.

Source Landscape

This story draws on centre-leaning sources from United States

United States

LeftRight

At $195 per barrel, jet fuel is roughly 130% above its pre-war $85 level. Ryanair's hedged 80% provides a buffer that expires at different points through Q2. The unhedged 20% at current market rates adds roughly €2-3 per passenger per flight, before any supply shortage premium.

European jet fuel refineries sourcing from Gulf crudes face a structural delay: refinery product from non-Gulf crude runs at lower volume because European refineries were optimised for Gulf light sweet grades. Switching crude slates requires 4-6 weeks of operational adjustment. If the war continues past mid-April, European jet fuel supply will not recover before peak summer travel demand regardless of what happens at Hormuz.

Consensus view: IATA and the Oxford Energy Institute both project European jet fuel margins tightening from late April if the conflict extends, with some regional airports facing allocation constraints rather than outright shortage. The risk is differential: smaller European carriers with less hedging capacity face operational pressure before Ryanair does.

Counter-view: Argus Media commodity analysts note European refiners are already diverting middle distillate output toward jet fuel from diesel, providing a partial offset. The supply constraint may be less severe than O'Leary's warning implies for the European market specifically.

Key tension: Whether European refinery flexibility can offset The Gulf supply gap through the summer travel peak, or whether the gap is large enough that even full European refinery optimisation cannot close it.

Sources:War on the Rocks

Mentions:Russia →Bangladesh →Persian Gulf →Ryanair →Shah Gas Field →Brent Crude →

First Reported In

Update #55 · The Last Door Closes

War on the Rocks· 2 Apr 2026

Read original →

Different Perspectives

Oil market and P&I insurers

Brent cleared $87 intraday only once CENTCOM's blockade became physical rather than declared, even though P&I Clubs had already excluded Hormuz war risk a week earlier on 7 July: capital hedged ahead of enforcement, but prices moved only after it.

UAE reporting

UAE reporting placed the Omani tanker deaths at one seafarer against the International Maritime Agency's count of two, the first time in this war that a Gulf state's casualty figures have diverged from an international monitor's.

Jordan

Iranian strikes reached Jordan again on 14 July as part of the Gulf-wide retaliation for the Hormuz blockade, extending the conflict's geographic footprint to a state with no direct stake in the strait itself.

Bahrain

Bahrain sounded air-raid sirens on 14 July during Iran's Gulf-wide retaliation, the same day CENTCOM's blockade order and fourth night of strikes pushed the conflict's physical reach into the wider Gulf littoral.

Kuwait

Kuwait intercepted Iranian missiles and drones on 14 July as Tehran's blockade retaliation reached Gulf states beyond Iran's immediate shoreline, confirming Kuwaiti airspace now sits inside Iran's retaliatory envelope.

Oman

Oman absorbed the war's first tanker casualties in its own waters on 14 July, with two supertankers disabled and seafarers killed, putting the sultanate's shipping lanes directly in the path of the blockade fight for the first time.