Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary warned on 1 April that European jet fuel supply could run short from May if the war continues past April 1. 25-30% of Europe's jet fuel comes from The Persian Gulf. The global jet fuel benchmark has more than doubled to roughly $195 per barrel, up from $85-90 pre-war. Ryanair hedged 80% of its fuel; the remaining 20% is exposed at current market rates. Summer flight cancellations are possible.
2APR
Ryanair Warns of European Fuel Shortage
2 min read
08:35UTC
Europe's largest low-cost airline says jet fuel could run short from May. The benchmark has doubled to $195 per barrel.
ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway
A quarter of Europe's jet fuel comes from the Gulf; shortages loom from May.
Deep Analysis
In plain English
Europe's largest budget airline says jet fuel could run short from May. About a quarter of Europe's jet fuel comes from the Gulf. The benchmark price has more than doubled to $195 per barrel. Airlines hedge fuel costs by buying contracts in advance. Ryanair hedged 80% of its fuel needs at lower prices. The problem is that hedges run out. When they do, the airline must buy at market prices. If supply also runs short, some routes stop flying. Summer 2026 is when that risk lands.
Sources:War on the Rocks
Different Perspectives
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