Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary warned on 1 April that European jet fuel supply could run short from May if the war continues past April 1. 25-30% of Europe's jet fuel comes from the Persian Gulf. The global jet fuel benchmark has more than doubled to roughly $195 per barrel, up from $85-90 pre-war. Ryanair hedged 80% of its fuel; the remaining 20% is exposed at current market rates. Summer flight cancellations are possible.
2APR
Ryanair Warns of European Fuel Shortage
2 min read
08:35UTC
Europe's largest low-cost airline says jet fuel could run short from May. The benchmark has doubled to $195 per barrel.
ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway
A quarter of Europe's jet fuel comes from the Gulf; shortages loom from May.
Deep Analysis
In plain English
Europe's largest budget airline says jet fuel could run short from May. About a quarter of Europe's jet fuel comes from the Gulf. The benchmark price has more than doubled to $195 per barrel. Airlines hedge fuel costs by buying contracts in advance. Ryanair hedged 80% of its fuel needs at lower prices. The problem is that hedges run out. When they do, the airline must buy at market prices. If supply also runs short, some routes stop flying. Summer 2026 is when that risk lands.
Sources:War on the Rocks
Different Perspectives
IAEA
Director General Rafael Grossi appeared in person at the UNSC on 19 May and warned that a direct hit on an operating reactor 'could result in very high release of radioactivity'. The session produced a condemnation record but no resolution, and the Barakah perimeter was already struck on 17 May.
Hengaw (Kurdish rights monitor)
Hengaw documented three judicial executions and the detention of Kurdish writer Majid Karimi in Tehran on 19 May, establishing Khorasan Razavi province as the newest geography in Iran's wartime judicial record. The organisation's Norway-based operation continues to surface a domestic repression track running in parallel with every diplomatic and military development.
India
Six India-flagged vessels conducted a coordinated cluster transit under PGSA bilateral assurances during the 17 May window, paying no yuan tolls. New Delhi's inclusion in Iran's state-to-state passage track insulates Indian energy supply without requiring endorsement of the PGSA's yuan-toll architecture or alignment with the US coalition.
Pakistan
Pakistan is the only functioning diplomatic bridge between Tehran and Washington. Its role is relay, not mediation in the settlement sense: it conveyed Iran's 10-point counter-MOU in early May, relayed the US rejection, and is now passing 'corrective points' in the third documented exchange of this sub-cycle without either side working from a shared text.
UK and France (Northwood coalition)
Twenty-six coalition members have published no rules of engagement eight days after the Bahrain joint statement; Lloyd's underwriters have conditioned war-risk reopening on written ROE from either Iran or the coalition. Italian and French mine-countermeasures deployments are operating on the in-water clearance task CENTCOM Admiral Brad Cooper's 90% mine-stockpile claim does not address.
Saudi Arabia
Riyadh has not publicly commented on the Barakah strike or the 50-47 discharge vote. Saudi output feeds the IEA's $106 base case; the $5 Brent premium above that model reflects institutional uncertainty no Gulf producer can compress through supply adjustment alone.