19MAR

Houthis threaten second chokepoint

1 min read

08:52UTC

Three days of sustained attacks on Israel establish that Ansar Allah can maintain tempo. The question is whether they close the strait.

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ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

The Houthi front is calibrated escalation, not symbolic gestures.

Ansar Allah struck Israel for a third consecutive day on 30 March . All projectiles were intercepted. Deputy Information Minister Mohammed Mansour described Bab al-Mandeb closure as "among our options" in a staged escalation, contingent on Israeli or US ground movement. ¹

No formal blockade has been imposed. All vessels, including US- and Israeli-linked ships, continue to transit. But three days of attacks confirm sustainable operational tempo. Combined with near-total Hormuz closure, a formal Bab al-Mandeb blockade would place simultaneous pressure on the world's two most critical oil transit routes for the first time since the 1973 oil crisis. MARAD and UKMTO have already confirmed deliberate GNSS denial spanning both chokepoints .

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Houthis control much of northern Yemen and have been attacking ships in the Red Sea since 2024. They are also allied with Iran. For three days running, they have fired missiles and drones toward Israel; all were intercepted. Bab al-Mandeb is a narrow strait between Yemen and Djibouti. About 10% of all world trade and a large share of oil from the Gulf to Europe passes through it. If the Houthis block it, combined with Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, two of the world's main oil routes would be shut simultaneously. That last happened in 1973 during the Arab oil embargo. It triggered a global recession. The Houthis have not closed Bab al-Mandeb yet, but their deputy minister said it is an option.

Sources:Al Jazeera

Mentions:UKMTO →Strait of Hormuz →Mohammed Mansour →Bab al-Mandeb →Houthis →

First Reported In

Update #53 · Trump drops Hormuz goal; toll becomes law

Al Jazeera· 31 Mar 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Houthis strike Israel for third day

A third consecutive Houthi attack on Israel builds on the first two barrages of 28-30 March, establishing sustainable operational tempo.

Occurred 30 Mar 2026

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GPS blacked out across Gulf chokepoints

GNSS denial across both chokepoints supports the coordinated Houthi-Iran electronic warfare enabling the sustained missile campaign against Israel.

Occurred 29 Mar 2026

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This Event

Houthis threaten second chokepoint

A formal Bab al-Mandeb blockade combined with Hormuz closure would simultaneously shut the world's two most critical oil transit routes for the first time since 1973.

Different Perspectives

Oil market and P&I insurers

Brent cleared $87 intraday only once CENTCOM's blockade became physical rather than declared, even though P&I Clubs had already excluded Hormuz war risk a week earlier on 7 July: capital hedged ahead of enforcement, but prices moved only after it.

UAE reporting

UAE reporting placed the Omani tanker deaths at one seafarer against the International Maritime Agency's count of two, the first time in this war that a Gulf state's casualty figures have diverged from an international monitor's.

Jordan

Iranian strikes reached Jordan again on 14 July as part of the Gulf-wide retaliation for the Hormuz blockade, extending the conflict's geographic footprint to a state with no direct stake in the strait itself.

Bahrain

Bahrain sounded air-raid sirens on 14 July during Iran's Gulf-wide retaliation, the same day CENTCOM's blockade order and fourth night of strikes pushed the conflict's physical reach into the wider Gulf littoral.

Kuwait

Kuwait intercepted Iranian missiles and drones on 14 July as Tehran's blockade retaliation reached Gulf states beyond Iran's immediate shoreline, confirming Kuwaiti airspace now sits inside Iran's retaliatory envelope.

Oman

Oman absorbed the war's first tanker casualties in its own waters on 14 July, with two supertankers disabled and seafarers killed, putting the sultanate's shipping lanes directly in the path of the blockade fight for the first time.