Norway's Norwegian Offshore Directorate (Sodir) March 2026 production print recorded gas sales of 10.8 bcm (billion cubic metres) and production averaging 349.3 mcm/day, -1.6% MoM and -0.8% YoY, the second consecutive month of marginal decline1. Norway sits as the largest single-country supplier of pipeline gas to EU buyers since 2022, which makes the trajectory of these monthly prints structural rather than incidental for the storage-pace question.
The April release is due mid-May. Two consecutive monthly declines in steady-state production point to underlying field decline working through the Norwegian Continental Shelf rather than a one-off shutdown.
For positioning, the question is whether the April Sodir print confirms a third consecutive monthly decline. If it does, the Norwegian leg of the EU storage-pace floor sits structurally below where published refill models implicitly assume. The Norwegian supply-side read depends on whether Q2 holds the line or the slope steepens.
