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Iran Conflict 2026
1OCT

Clean spark spread reaches €74

2 min read
19:22UTC

Germany's clean spark spread reached roughly €74/MWh on 30 June, reversing a three-week run of losses, as EUA carbon held the €80 handle at €80.17.

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Key takeaway

A high day-ahead lifted Germany's spark spread to €74; carbon near €80 caps the margin.

Germany's clean spark spread widened to roughly €74/MWh on 30 June, its best reading since the early-June heat series⁠1. Take the day-ahead high, subtract about €88 of gas input and €32 of carbon at a 50%-efficiency CCGT, and the gross generating margin lands there. Three weeks earlier the same spread sat near EUR -8 to -9, with CCGTs losing money on every dispatched megawatt.

The carbon leg moved too. EUA (EU Allowance) permits slipped to €79.25 on 29 June, briefly losing the €80 handle, then recovered to €80.17 on 30 June⁠2. EUA had first broken above €80 on 25 June, and holding that level keeps the carbon cost near €32/MWh.

That €32 carbon charge is what holds the German margin in check. Strip the permits out and the same day-ahead high would clear a spark spread well above €100. The reversal from three weeks of losses tracks the day-ahead rather than any fall in gas: at an unchanged €88 fuel leg, the power price alone turned the spread positive.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The clean spark spread is the profit a gas power plant earns per megawatt-hour it generates, after paying for the gas fuel and for EU carbon pollution permits. When the price of electricity is high and the price of gas and carbon is low, the spread is wide and generators make good money. When the price of electricity is low or gas and carbon are expensive, the spread can go negative, meaning operators lose money on each unit of electricity they produce. On 30 June, three things aligned to produce the widest spread since early June: electricity prices reached €195 per megawatt-hour because wind was almost absent and demand was high; gas prices stayed at €40-44 because Gulf tensions had eased; and EU carbon permits recovered to €80 per tonne. A generator burning gas to make one megawatt-hour of electricity paid about €88 for fuel and €32 for carbon permits, leaving a gross margin of about €74. Three weeks earlier, the same calculation gave a loss of €8-9 per megawatt-hour. The difference is almost entirely the electricity price: it was €70 higher on 30 June than on 8 June.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The €74 spread on 30 June required three conditions to converge simultaneously. First, €195/MWh day-ahead clearing: produced by the lowest wind week of 2026 coinciding with a summer heat surge, as documented in event 5.

Second, €40-44 TTF: the Hormuz de-escalation of 17 June drained the geopolitical risk premium and the pipeline ban binding with no snap-back left no recovery bid. Third, EUA at €80.17/tCO2: the carbon leg recovered after the €79.25 dip on 29 June, maintaining the €32/MWh carbon input that keeps the spread below what a carbon-free calculation would yield.

Remove any one condition and the spread collapses: at spring TTF of €47-52 with the same €195 day-ahead and €80 EUA, the marginal cost rises to €134-144/MWh and the spread falls to €51-61/MWh, below most fixed-O&M recovery thresholds.

At €195 power with €44 gas but EUA at €70, the carbon leg falls to €28/MWh, reducing marginal cost by €4/MWh and boosting the spread to €78, a minor change that confirms gas price, not carbon, is the dominant spread driver in the current €40-44 TTF regime.

Sources:euenergy.live·Trading Economics
Mentions:EUA →Germany →CCGT →TTF →
First Reported In

Update #22 · Germany refills as the autumn cliff nears

euenergy.live· 30 Jun 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
German clean spark spread holds negative
Germany's clean spark spread reversed its EUR -8 to -9/MWh three-week run when EUR 195 day-ahead power covered gas and carbon input costs at a 50% CCGT, widening to roughly EUR 74/MWh on 30 June.
Occurred 8 Jun 2026
Read story →
EUA carbon breaks €80 as gas sags
EUA recovering from EUR 79.25 (29 June) to EUR 80.17 (30 June) after briefly losing the EUR 80 handle set the EUR 32/MWh carbon leg that held the German spark spread below EUR 100 even at EUR 195 day-ahead power.
Occurred 25 Jun 2026
Read story →
This Event
Clean spark spread reaches €74
German gas-fired plants returned to profit as the day-ahead high lifted the spark spread above €70, with carbon near €80 capping the gain.
Led to
German and French prices rise, spark squeezed
Contrasts against the EUR 74 spark spread reached on 30 June, showing the same margin pressure recurring under different drivers.
Occurred 9 Jul 2026
Read story →
EUA carbon breaks €81 a tonne
The EUR 81 print extends the EUA run that first broke EUR 80 on 25 June and held EUR 80.17 on 30 June.
Occurred 13 Jul 2026
Read story →
German gas plants back in profit
The clean spark spread reached EUR 74 on 30 June in an earlier inversion-to-recovery cycle; this is the same metric recurring at a later point in the same cycle.
Occurred 30 Jul 2026
Read story →
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