CFTC Commitments of Traders for 19 May put NYMEX WTI-Physical non-commercial net long at +172,580 contracts, against net short -4,723 on 28 April1. That prior short was the starting point logged in the 12 May report; the swing since is roughly +177,000 contracts in three weeks. Brent Last Day went the other way, flipping to net short -24,966 from a prior +58,259, so the two benchmarks that normally track each other split hard2.
The build is dated 19 May. the MOU landed four sessions later on 23 May. The crowd rotated max-long WTI on its own logic, the 7.9mb US crude draw and 134C legitimising Russian supply, not on any Iran headline. The deal punished a position already set; it did not create it. Reading the inversion as MoU-driven inverts the causation and mistimes the unwind risk.
The deleveraging has started: WTI open interest fell 78,977 week-on-week3. The 29 May COT is the tell on how violent the carry-out runs once the $14 drop hits the offside length. On products, the compressing Brent-WTI keeps European gasoline in basin: TC2 sat around WS230 and $19,300/day on 7 May, and that arb stays shut at this spread, which traps EBOB length on the Continent.
