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Iran Conflict 2026
31JUL

Money trims WTI and Brent length

3 min read
09:24UTC

CFTC data for the week to 26 May shows NYMEX WTI managed money net long +79,924, down from +98,219 a week earlier, while Brent Last Day managed money eased to +9,568. Money trimmed both crude legs.

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Key takeaway

The selling that compressed Brent-WTI is spent; the next clean move in the spread is wider.

CFTC Commitments of Traders for the week to 26 May show West Texas Intermediate managed money at net long +79,924, down from +98,219 on 19 May, a cut of 18,295 contracts.⁠1 The CFTC is the US derivatives regulator, and its weekly positioning data is the standard read on where speculative money sits. WTI is the US pipeline-leg benchmark on NYMEX; managed money still holds most of the length it built before the Iran memorandum. Brent Last Day managed money eased to +9,568 from +12,930, so money trimmed both legs rather than rotating out of WTI into Brent.

The book stays long both legs, with most of the length in WTI. Brent-WTI sits around $2 with WTI length still to carry out. The spread can compress on genuine diplomacy or widen if the June sanctions cliff or Hormuz risk reactivates. The re-widening to $3.55 on 29 May showed the path of least resistance.

The spread pays as convexity into the calendar, not as a directional bet on the flat price. From here the spread carries cheap optionality on the three June dates rather than a view on where Brent settles.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Brent and WTI are the world's two main oil price benchmarks, traded on different exchanges and reflecting different supply routes. Brent is the European and global one, based on oil loaded from ships in the North Sea. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is the American one, based on oil stored at Cushing, Oklahoma, delivered by pipeline. Investors and trading funds usually bet on both. Last week, funds that had been betting heavily that WTI would rise cut those bets by about 18% after the Iran diplomacy news arrived, and trimmed their smaller Brent bets too. The gap between Brent and WTI prices is now around $2 a barrel, and funds still hold a large WTI bet that could come out if prices keep falling.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The 18,295-contract cut in WTI managed-money length in the week to 26 May followed a 78,977-contract fall in WTI open interest the week before. The Iran MOU arrived four sessions after the WTI long was established, meaning funds were already long on a thesis (tightening supply + GL 134C legitimacy) that the MOU invalidated within a trading week.

Managed money did not rotate into Brent: its Brent Last Day net long eased to +9,568 from +12,930. The MOU left the highly enriched uranium stockpile untouched and set a 30-60 day timeline, so the physical supply risk did not resolve , it just deflated enough to invalidate the WTI overland-supply squeeze narrative.

The residual ~$2 Brent-WTI spread carries WTI length that can still come out, so the spread can move on WTI liquidation as well as on Brent risk.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    With WTI managed money at net short -1,269, any Hormuz reactivation or GL 134C cliff event on 17 June faces no mechanical spread compressor, allowing Brent-WTI to widen toward the pre-MOU $4-5 band within one trading session.

    Immediate · Suggested
  • Consequence

    The Brent net long of +52,000 is exposed to rapid unwind if the Iran MOU reaches a signed deal that credibly re-opens Hormuz, potentially swinging Brent-WTI back to $1 or below.

    Short term · Suggested
  • Meaning

    The 173,849-contract speed of the WTI unwind confirms that the prior long was momentum-driven rather than fundamental: funds entered on the supply-tightness thesis and exited on the first diplomatic signal, with no remaining conviction position in either direction.

    Immediate · Assessed
Sources:CFTC
Mentions:Brent-WTI →West Texas →Texas →Iran →ESMA →Paris →North Sea →Columbia University →Commitments of Traders →Trading Economics →West Texas Intermediate →Brent Crude →CFTC →
First Reported In

Update #5 · Sixth straight draw, the flat price won't say

CFTC· 4 Jun 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
WTI non-commercial net long at +172,580
The WTI net long of +172,580 built by 19 May is the position that collapsed to net short -1,269 by 26 May, completing the unwind the briefing tracks.
Occurred 19 May 2026
Read story →
Brent-WTI spread widens out to $3.55
The Brent-WTI re-widening to $3.55 on 29 May showed the path of least resistance before the WTI unwind fully completed and the book settled at ~$2.
Occurred 29 May 2026
Read story →
Brent jumps 5.08% on Monday short-squeeze
Brent's 5.08% Monday rally extended the WTI net-short unwind that CFTC data confirmed was already complete before the OPEC weekend.
Occurred 8 Jun 2026
Read story →
This Event
Money trims WTI and Brent length
Managed money trimmed WTI and Brent length in the week to 26 May but stayed long both, so WTI length remains to carry out if the flat price falls.
Led to
Brent round-trips the squeeze as backwardation holds
The prior 109,000-contract Brent long built from +52,000 then reversed to the -57,280 net short that drove the squeeze.
Occurred 11 Jun 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
United States (Joint Maritime Information Center)
United States (Joint Maritime Information Center)
The JMIC, the US-led naval reporting cell, rated the Hormuz threat "severe" in its 25 October advisory, as reported by gCaptain, and warned of possible renewed mining. Eight days earlier it found no substantiation for the Guards' mine claims, while US-facilitated transits ran at about 34 a day.
United Kingdom (CPS and Counter Terrorism Policing)
United Kingdom (CPS and Counter Terrorism Policing)
The CPS charged two men under the National Security Act 2023 over the RAF Fairford incident, and Counter Terrorism Policing said it believes the foreign intelligence service involved is Iran's, LBC reported. The case now runs through the courts; both men are charged, not convicted.
Aden and Yemen's recognised government
Aden and Yemen's recognised government
The Houthis told people to leave Aden airport, in the government-held south, before a missile fell there on 28 October, AFP reported, and police reported a second attack that afternoon. The fight between Riyadh and the Houthis is landing on the south's main civilian airport.
Qatar (mediators)
Qatar (mediators)
Qatar-led mediators put new terms to Iran this week, which an Iranian official called "ideas, not a proposal". Riyadh framed the Tehran meeting as support for Qatari and Pakistani mediation, keeping Doha at the centre of the indirect channel.
Korea Shipowners' Association
Korea Shipowners' Association
The association said the ships Iran listed were sub-chartered to an overseas oil company, not owned by Sinokor, carried no South Korean crew, and that Sinokor was unaware of the warning. South Korea's shipowners are contesting whose vessels the notice covers before it takes effect.
Kuwait (foreign ministry)
Kuwait (foreign ministry)
Kuwait summoned Iran's ambassador, Mohammad Toutounji, and handed him a protest note over the embassy's denial that its citizen took part in the alleged plot against Interior Minister Fahad Al-Yousef. Kuwait is answering through its courts and a diplomatic protest, citing international law and the UN Charter.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.