President Trump extended the deadline for strikes on Iran's power grid to 6 April, the third such extension since his original 48-hour ultimatum, according to Bloomberg.1 Trump cited three reasons: an Iranian government request, 10 oil tankers allowed through Hormuz as a 'present,' and progress in Pakistan-mediated indirect talks. The original deadline of 25 March was extended once before reaching the current April 6 date.
The tanker claim requires scrutiny. The vessels Trump described as an Iranian diplomatic gesture appear to be Pakistani-flagged ships already in the 'friendly nation' category that Iran established under its own vetting system weeks earlier. Iran has neither confirmed nor denied granting any special concession to Trump. Earlier, Iran had declared Hormuz closed to US-linked vessels while allowing transit to countries including India, Pakistan, Iraq, Malaysia, and China. Pakistani-flagged ships transiting was not a new Iranian concession; it was Iran's existing policy applied to Pakistan's existing fleet.
After three postponements in five days, Iran has learned that deadlines are suggestions. The credibility of the threat deteriorates with each extension because the pattern has been demonstrated: Trump sets a deadline, claims an Iranian gesture whether or not Iran acknowledges making one, and extends. Markets have largely repriced this pattern: Brent Crude fell 10.9% on the first talks announcement but has since stabilised as each deadline passes without result. The April 6 deadline arrives against a backdrop of Bushehr nuclear construction suspended, the Philippines in national energy emergency, and US gasoline at $3.98 per gallon.
