Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Iran Conflict 2026
11JUN

Pakistan confirms talks; Ghalibaf denies

2 min read
09:17UTC
ConflictDeveloping

Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar confirmed on 26 March that Pakistan is facilitating indirect talks between the US and Iran, relaying a 15-point American proposal that Tehran is reviewing. 1 Dar stated publicly that 'the United States has shared 15 points, being deliberated upon by Iran.' The White House would not confirm any scheduled meeting, stating 'nothing official until announced by White House.' Vice President JD Vance has been proposed as the US interlocutor; Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf as the Iranian counterpart .

The Pakistan confirmation is the first time a third-party intermediary has publicly confirmed the existence of a channel, distinct from Iran's prior denial of any negotiations . India, Pakistan, Iraq, Malaysia, and China had previously negotiated directly with Tehran on bilateral transit arrangements , establishing Pakistan's credibility as an interlocutor with access to the Iranian government.

The contradiction at the centre of this development is Ghalibaf himself. On the same day Pakistan confirmed the talks and secured his removal from the joint targeting list, Ghalibaf called Trump's claim of Iranian peace overtures an attempt to 'escape the quagmire.' 2 He also threatened an unnamed regional neighbour, widely understood to be the UAE, with 'continuous and relentless attacks' on vital infrastructure if it assists in a Kharg Island operation. 3

Iran's proposed peace envoy is publicly threatening to destroy Gulf infrastructure on the day his protective status is confirmed. This is either sophisticated negotiating posture (arrive at the table having demonstrated willingness to burn it) or evidence that the talks have no Iranian institutional backing and Ghalibaf is performing for a domestic audience rather than engaging with the diplomatic framework Pakistan has built.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Pakistan's foreign minister announced publicly that Pakistan is passing messages between the US and Iran, and that the US has sent Iran a list of 15 proposals for ending the war. On the same day, the Iranian official who was supposed to sit across from the US vice-president in Islamabad called the whole thing an attempt by Trump to 'escape the quagmire' and threatened to attack Gulf states. Whether that is Iran playing hardball before sitting down, or Iran signalling it has no intention of talking, is the central question nobody can answer yet.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The structural tension is between domestic political positioning and diplomatic flexibility. Ghalibaf represents the hardline parliamentary faction and calculates that demonstrating strength domestically is more valuable than demonstrating flexibility internationally.

Pakistan's incentive to publicise the channel differs from Iran's incentive to keep it quiet. The mediator's credibility requirements conflict with the parties' secrecy requirements.

First Reported In

Update #49 · Hormuz toll into law; Tangsiri killed

Arab News / Wall Street Journal· 27 Mar 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
Oil markets and Lloyd's of London
Oil markets and Lloyd's of London
Brent fell to $89.25 on ceasefire probability, not new barrels, with traders voting for Trump's deed over Tehran's denial. Lloyd's has not repriced Hormuz war-risk cover because its trigger requires a UN Security Council resolution or government certification, so tanker insurance costs remain elevated regardless of the spot move.
Pakistan and Qatar mediators
Pakistan and Qatar mediators
Pakistan's Mohsin Naqvi was in Tehran for his second visit in under a week, using the Pakistan-Qatar channel that delivered April's ceasefire after an identical public-denial cycle. The channel carries both civilian and military buy-in from Islamabad, the only configuration Iran's split command cannot dismiss as a partial signal.
India
India
India summoned the US Deputy Chief of Mission after three Indian sailors were killed aboard MT Settebello, the first formal grievance from a major non-belligerent directed at US enforcement. Indian seafarers supply roughly 12 per cent of the global maritime workforce; their presence on third-flag Gulf tankers is structurally inevitable regardless of bilateral diplomacy.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
The IRGC declared Hormuz closed on 11 June while civilian negotiators were on the same mediation channel, then issued no public comment on the MoU framework. Its silence on the framework, rather than any foreign ministry statement, is the operative approval signal; the corps' unilateral Hormuz closure shows it did not treat the diplomatic track as binding on its operations.
Iran foreign ministry (Baghaei)
Iran foreign ministry (Baghaei)
Esmail Baghaei told IRNA that reports of a finalised deal were 'merely speculation' and that Iran had 'not yet made a final decision'. The denial is structurally identical to Iranian foreign ministry statements during the April ceasefire talks, which produced a binding text within 48 hours of the same language.
Trump administration / CENTCOM
Trump administration / CENTCOM
Trump cancelled the third strike day and called the MoU 'very strong' and almost ready to sign, while CENTCOM kept tanker enforcement running in the same 24-hour window. The administration is simultaneously withdrawing the military pressure it claims drove the deal and sustaining the enforcement campaign it is trying to trade away.